Wednesday, November 29, 2006

November Scotsman Poll: Results in Full

SNP 44-49 (up 17-22 on 2003)
Labour 36-40 (down 10-14)
Liberal Democrats 21-22 (up 4-5)
Conservatives 15-16 (down 2-3 on 2003)
Greens 6 (down 1)
SSP 1 (down 5)
Independent (Canavan) 1

ICM/Scotsman Poll: West of Scotland

SNP: 37%/37%
Labour: 27%/22%
LibDems: 16%/20%
Conservatives: 11%/12%
Green: 4%/5%
SSP: 1%/3%

These results would lead to a total collapse for Labour, with only Eastwood remaining in the Party's hands. Greenock & Inverclyde would transfer to LibDem control, while Clydebank & Milngavie, Cunninghame North, Dumbarton, Paisley North, Paisley South and West Renfrewshire would be gained by the SNP, who could also win Strathkelvin & Bearsden from Jean Turner. In full:

SNP 7 (all constituencies, up 4)
Labour 4 (1 constituency, 3 regional, down 4)
LibDems 3 (1 constituency, 2 regional, up 2)
Conservatives 2 (both regional, no change)
SSP 0 (down 1)

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

ICM/Scotsman Poll: South of Scotland

SNP: 33%/31%
Labour: 25%/23%
LibDems: 23%/24%
Conservatives: 13%/16%
Green: 1%/2%
SSP: 1%/1%
Solidarity: 0%/1%

This poll sees the SNP win back Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, which it lost in 2003. They could also take Clydesdale and Cunninghame South from Labour, but the strong LibDem showing could stop them from taking Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale as well. Further, the LibDems' ratings have them winning East Lothian from Labour, whose only saving grace could be the Tories' poor showing in Ayr allowing them to win back the seat they lost six years ago. The full results:

SNP 5 (3 constituencies, 2 regional, up 2)
Labour 4 (3 constituencies, 1 regional, down 1)
LibDems 4 (3 constituencies, 1 regional, up 2)
Conservatives 3 (all regional, down 1)
Greens 0 (down 1)
SSP 0 (down 1 on 2003)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: North East Scotland

SNP: 32%/29%
LibDems: 24%/20%
Conservatives: 18%/20%
Labour: 17%/14%
SSP: 4%/5%
Green: 3%/10%
Solidarity: 1%/0%

The North East is seen as the SNP's traditional stronghold, but there little sign of an advance on these figures. Victory in Aberdeen Central and Dundee West is contingent on at least some support for the SNP on the Constituency vote from the SSP and Greens, while if these figures were replicated in the election, Alex Salmond's best hope for returning to Holyrood would come from failure to win those two seats. The full results:

SNP 5-6 (4-6 constituencies, 0-1 regional, up 0-1)
LibDems 3-4 (3 constituencies, 0-1 regional, up 0-1)*
Conservatives 3-4 (all regional, up 0-1)*
Labour 2 (0-2 constituencies, 0-2 regional, down 2)
Green 2 (both regional, up 1)

* The LibDems are tied on the Regional Vote. In the event that Labour hold their two North Eastern constituencies, the current figures would provide a vacancy for either a fourth Tory Regional MSP or a Liberal Democrat Regional MSP, but not both.

Monday, November 27, 2006

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Mid Scotland & Fife

SNP: 47%/40%
Labour: 33%/31%
LibDems: 10%/12%
Conservatives: 6%/6%
SSP: 3%/3%
Green: 0%/5%

Despite the swing to the SNP, the results in Mid Scotland & Fife would lead to only one change: Tricia Marwick would win Central Fife.

SNP 7 (4 constituencies, 3 regional, up 2)
Labour 6 (4 constituencies, 2 regional, up 1)
LibDems 2 (1 constituency, 1 regional, no change)
Conservatives 1 (regional, down 2 on 2003)
Greens 0 (down 1)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Lothians

SNP: 38%/36%
Labour: 30%/23%
LibDems: 10%/12%
Conservatives: 10%/11%
SSP: 7%/6%
Green: 4%/12%

The moral of the poll in the Lothians is that a small sample size can produce odd results. Even if the SNP sees all SSP and Green voters support other parties on the Constituency vote, it is still likely to pick up Linlithgow and Livingston, but Labour will win back Edinburgh Pentlands from David McLetchie and Edinburgh South from Mike Pringle. Nothing wrong there you might think (apart from Labour winning back seats). But if the SNP picks up an average level of SSP/Green support, then not only does Ian McKee win Pentlands for the SNP (I'm sure he's good, but can anyone be that good?!), but the party wins Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Edinburgh North & Leith, and Midlothian. If the SNP picks up all Constituency votes from the SSP and Greens, then it will 'scoop the pool', picking up all nine Lothian constituencies. It's also worth bearing in mind that Margo MacDonald does not appear on the poll. She could affect the final outcome. The full result:

SNP 6-9 (2-9 constituencies, 0-4 regional, up 4-7)
Labour 3-6 (0-6 constituencies, 0-3 regional, down 0-3)
Greens 2 (both regional, no change)
LibDems 1-2 (0-1 constituency, 0-1 regional, down 0-1)
Conservatives 1 (regional, down 1)
SSP 0-1 (0-1 regional, down 0-1)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Highlands & Islands

SNP: 44%/30%
LibDems: 25%/35%
Labour: 12%/14%
Conservatives: 11%/17%
Green: 0%/2%

The figures have Jim Mather beating the LibDem Deputy Finance Minister George Lyon in Argyll & Bute. The SNP would also win in the Western Isles. The full figures:

SNP 5 (4 constituencies, 1 regional, up 1)
LibDems 5 (4 constituencies, 1 regional, no change)
Conservatives 3 (all regional, up 1)
Labour 2 (both regional, down 1)
Greens 0 (down 1)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Glasgow

Labour: 44%/35%
SNP: 28%/30%
Conservatives: 11%/7%
LibDems: 9%/9%
Green: 4%/14%
SSP: 3%/3%

On these figures, Nicola Sturgeon will win in Govan. Additional SSP and Green support for the SNP will see Sandra White become the MSP for Kelvin. The full result:

Labour 8-9 (all constituencies, down 1-2)
SNP 4-5 (1-2 constituencies, 3 regional, up 2-3)
Greens 2 (both regional, up 1)
LibDems 1 (regional, no change)
Conservatives 1 (regional, no change)
SSP 0 (down 2 on 2003)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Central Scotland

(Constiuency Result/Regional Result)

Labour: 41%/37%
SNP: 32%/29%
Conservatives: 15%/10%
LibDems: 7%/11%
Green: 4%/1%
SSP: 3%/8%

The SNP are on course to gain Cumbernauld & Kilsyth and Kilmarnock & Loudoun. If the Party picks up the Constituency votes from SSP & Green supporters, then Linda Fabiani could win East Kilbride as well, unseating Health Minister Andy Kerr. Taking into account the list, I predict the following result based on this month's poll:

Labour 7 (6-7 constituencies, 0-1 list, down 2)
SNP 5 (2-3 constituencies, 2-3 list, up 2)
LibDems 2 (both regional, up 1)
Conservatives 1 (regional, no change)
SSP 1 (regional, no change)
Independent (Canavan) 1 (Falkirk West, no change)
SSCUP 0 (down 1)