Scotland Decides

Some thoughts on the future

2007-05-04T18:55:00.000+01:00

The SNP are now the largest Party in Scotland, for the first time ever. Regardless of any other events, this is a big thing, fifty years of Labour certainty has evaporated, and the fact that Labour came second in the Constituency Vote but still ended up with a majority of Constituencies shows why we need to be thankful for PR, why electoral reform for the Councils was right, and why change for Westminster can't come soon enough. But now they have to form a government: they need the LibDems and the Greens, there is no way round this. Unless they can cobble together support for policies on an issue-by-issue basis with every other party except Labour, who would probably resist any SNP measure outright. The question now is: where goes the independence referendum? There are a few activists wondering if whether or not insisting on this is the wisest thing given the circumstances.

Labour could still form a government, but either way, Jack McConnell is coming to the end of his leadership. He is damaged: he will be viewed at the man who lost Scotland for Labour. But the Party is still in a fairly secure position. They still have a vice-like grip on Lanarkshire , and hold nine of the ten Glasgow Constituencies. They still control North Lanarkshire and Glasgow councils. They held on to Edinburgh Central and Aberdeen Central. The loss of three Constituencies in Mid Scotland & Fife was balanced out by winning three Regional seats there, maintaining a presence. They held on to their constituencies in the South, only lost one in the West and won back Strathkelvin & Bearsden. They still have all their big hitters in the Parliament. However, the spotlight will slowly turn to Westminster, where Labour's grip is looking like it will weaken. As things get worse there, that could affect the Party more generally, weakening Scottish Labour. The big problem is that just as the SNP were in danger of being seen only as a force north of the Tay, Labour is now primarily a force around the Clyde.

The Tories end this election with one MSP fewer than in 2003, but they potentially hold influence and Goldie has done well. Coming third in Stirling will be traumatic, as will Murray Tosh's failure to win Dumfries, but coming within a whisker in Eastwood, and holding on to Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, combined with the against-the-odds win in Roxburgh & Berwickshire, shows that the Party is stronger than we thought. The question is, given the 'lack of obvious talent' in the group, can new Members John Lamont, Gavin Brown, Liz Smith and Jackson Carlaw add anything? And with focus shifting, what prospects does the Party have for gains at Westminster?

This is an electoral disaster for the LibDems, the so-called 'Party of Real Momentum'. They have actually gone backwards, and the balance of power does not rest with them and them alone, as it might otherwise have done. Nicol Stephen clearly does not have the charisma and the persolnality for the Party to run a campaign around him. It's not even clear if their place in government is 100% guaranteed. Add to that the loss of Gordon (understandable), Argyll & Bute (where one of the Party's key members has lost out) and Roxburgh & Berwickshire and the story is one of a Party in trouble. The Party has a reason to cheer in Dunfermline West but even so, they need a period of reflection, and it's clear that Jim Wallace was right to leave when the going was good.

Then the Greens. This is not the disaster it appears. They may have lost a number of MSPs but the overall result gives their two MSPs influence and they could well make a deal with the SNP and LibDems. Patrick Harvie owes his continued MSP status to the split between the SSP and Solidarity (their combined votes were greater than the Green vote), but Martin Bartos managed to take 12.6% of the vote and third place in Glasgow Kelvin, while the Greens have five Councillors in Glasgow and three in Edinburgh. Harvie will probably be Co-Convener before long, with Robin Harper easing out of politics, though it's hard to see who will join him as the female Co-Convener. Shiona Baird's position is weaker now she has lost her seat, as is Eleanor Scott's. Ruth Cameron is seen as a rising star, but her rather steep gradient might not go down all that well with some. And in any case, with no national platform, what good is the Convenership? Nevertheless, the Greens will recover.

The same cannot be said of the SSP and Solidarity. They disappear into the night: even Tommy Sheridan has lost his seat. The parties have one Councillor each: Solidarity in Glasgow and the SSP in West Dunbartonshire. The SSP got 19,016 votes in Central Scotland four years ago; the two parties couldn't even manage 8,000 between them yesterday. Their 31,116 votes in Glasgow turned into just over 12,000 combined yesterday. What's worse is that had there been only one party, with the same vote, they would have got an MSP, at the expense of Patrick Harvie. The two parties combined lost more than two thirds of the SSP's vote in the Highlands and Islands. Their combined vote in the Lothians was just under 5,000, compared with 14,448 for the SSP in 2003, and the SSP this time, with their Leader standing in the region, came eleventh, behind the SSCUP, Solidarity, the BNP and the Socialist Labour Party! Neither Party could manage 1% in Mid Scotland and Fife or North East Scotland, Rosemary Byrne has sunk without trace in the South, and the two parties's support was less than 2.5% in the West. Tommy Sheridan has said that the Party will build up and work towards 2001, but the SSP are doomed and Solidarity is in danger of being strangled at birth.

The bigger picture is that we have no clear government, so I might keep this blog running, in case we have to do it all over again in a month...

We live in interesting times

2007-05-04T17:36:00.000+01:00

SNP 47
Labour 46
Tories 17
LibDems 16
Greens 2
Independent 1

That's a SNP-LibDem-Green majority of 1.

Or a Labour-Tory-LibDem majority of 29.

South of Scotland

2007-05-04T15:55:00.000+01:00

All over bar the shouting here.

Labour hold: Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley with a 9.7% swing to the SNP; Clydesdale - 5.9% swing to the SNP; Cunninghame South - 8.7% swing to the SNP; Dumfries - 2.6% swing away from the Tories; East Lothian - 12.3% swing to the SNP.

Conservatives hold Ayr with a 3.3% swing to them from Labour and Galloway & Upper Nithsdale with a 5.4% swing to them from the SNP. They also gain Roxburgh & Berwickshire with a 9.4% swing to them from the LibDems.

The LibDems somehow hold onto Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale with a majority of 598, and a swing of 0.1% to the SNP.

On the List, Christine Grahame returns, Mike Russell is back in frontline politics, Adam Ingram returns as does Alasdair Morgan. Aileen Campbell is the fifth SNP Member. The Tories get Derek Brownlee back but Murray Tosh is out. If they'd lost Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, he'd probably be in. Jim Hume comes in for the LibDems, as compensation for their loss in Roxburgh & Berwickshire. Chris Ballance is out as is Rosemary Byrne, whose Solidarity party takes only 1.2% of the vote. This is still better than the SSP's 0.4%.

West of Scotland

2007-05-04T15:45:00.000+01:00

Still waiting on the List result, but on the Constituencies:

Labour hold: Clydebank & Milngavie, with a 2.6% swing to the SNP; Dumbarton - 8.9% swing to the SNP; Eastwood with an 891 vote majority and a 3.7% swing to the Tories; Greenock & Inverclyde with a 6.4% swing to the SNP that puts them in second place ahead of LibDem Environment Minister Ross Finnie; Paisley North with a 1.3% swing from the SNP; Paisley South with a 3.4% swing from the SNP and West Renfrewshire with a 1.3% swing to the Tories where Leader Annabel Goldie takes second place ahead of 2003 SNP Leadership Challenger Bill Wilson.

Labour gain Strathkelvin & Bearsden from Jean Turner who is beaten into third place.

SNP gain Cunninghame North by a majority of just 48 votes. Ex-SNP MSP Campbell Martin polled 4,423 votes here and very nearly split the Nationalist vote sufficiently to allow Allan Wilson back in. I warned readers about that possibility last year and it nearly came to fruition.

2007-05-04T15:43:00.000+01:00

Iain Smith on News 24: No mandate for independence and therefore no mandate for an independence referendum.

By that logic, there's no mandate for anything, surely?

2007-05-04T15:26:00.000+01:00

After seven hours of sleep and two catching up on what's happened, I may as well give this liveblogging another go.

2007-05-04T06:17:00.001+01:00

Time to admit defeat. Good whatever-the-hell you call this.

2007-05-04T06:11:00.001+01:00

Argyll & Bute have decided to pack up and go home until 3pm. So the Highlands & Islands Result will come through around 2010.

2010 AD.

Anyone else still out there?

2007-05-04T05:58:00.001+01:00

Give me a shout if you are.

2007-05-04T05:47:00.001+01:00

And now Aberdeen Central is to have a recount. Aaaaaaargh!

Glasgow List

2007-05-04T05:37:00.000+01:00

Solidarity has tanned the SSP's hide on the Regional Vote, but the successful candidates are:

Bashir Ahmad (SNP)
Sandra White (SNP)
Robert Brown (LibDem)
Bob Doris (SNP)
Bill Aitken (Con)
Bill Kidd (SNP)
Patrick Harvie (Green)

So Harvie survives, but Sheridan does not. I didn't believe the maths, I assumed he'd get back in anyway, but no, he's out. In fact, I wonder if had the split not happened, the combined Solidarity/SSP vote would have been enough for them to hang onto one seat, at Patrick Harvie. We do have our first Asian MSP though, along with three other SNP MSPs, up two from 2003 but level with 1999.

We also, thankfully, have some Regional results now, and one from Edinburgh: Pentlands is still Tory. I'm not sure who, if anyone it still up, and I might give in soon, but this farce is still worth watching.

2007-05-04T05:14:00.000+01:00

Eastwood has fallen to the Crap Computer Party.

5:21 - So have the two West Lothian seats.

2007-05-04T05:06:00.000+01:00

Oh, of course. It's the opposition parties' fault for not letting Labour bunch the STV candidates together by party. It has to be that, but it's still too early to say whether holding two elections with two different voting systems on the same day. That makes perfect sense, McCabe.

What a twat.

2007-05-04T05:00:00.000+01:00

Apparently Pentlands will declare in half an hour. The others are suspended until lunchtime. Mr. Eugenides is using the word 'clusterfuck' and I am inclined to agree.

2007-05-04T04:41:00.000+01:00

Computer problems in Edinburgh. And Andy Kerr has not been unseated. I suspect I would get more entertainment by streaking up and down the street. Weather has felled the Western Isles count, and by extension the Highlands and Islands count. Strathkelvin & Bearsden have given up (rightly) and the boat has has held up the Cunninghame North count, so jeopardising the West of Scotland Count. There has been no sign of life from any of the Edinburgh seats, so that's Lothian up the spout. And the lovely screens that monitor the progress of the counting in Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale are not showing anything.

And even when votes are counted, many are being rejected at unprecedented levels. A disaster.

Down the Pan

2007-05-04T04:30:00.000+01:00

Strathkelvin & Bearsden is now closed until 12 noon.

This is turning into the Scottish equivalent of the 'Hanging Chads'...

Clackmannanshire

2007-05-04T04:24:00.001+01:00

Labour - 8 seats
SNP - 7 seats
Tories - 1 seat
LibDem - 1 seat
Other - 1 seat

2007-05-04T04:14:00.000+01:00

Is it my imagination, or is the guy/girl doing the ticker bored?

There's just been an instruction to viewers to make themselves another coffee, and before they suggested that Glenn Campbell was the Justin Timberlake of BBC Scotland.

2007-05-04T04:10:00.000+01:00

The Goldie challenge in West Renfrewshire has not materialised. But neither has the SNP challenge - Trish Godman hangs on...

Anyway...

2007-05-04T03:57:00.000+01:00

Blogger no longer believes I am spam. This is good.

The big news is the Dunfermline West result, I suppose.

Oh, and we could be looking at a total recount in Strathkelvin & Bearsden...

Coatbridge & Chryston: Lab Hold

2007-05-04T03:30:00.000+01:00

Julie McAnulty is the winner of the Battle of the Health Campaigners, and saves her deposit, but Labour hold on comfortably.

Smith: 11860
SNP: 7350
Con: 2305
McAnulty: 1843
LibDem: 1519
Others: 848

Dunfermline East: Lab Hold

2007-05-04T03:27:00.000+01:00

Alas, the delightful-looking Ewan Dow does not get in.

Eadie: 10995
SNP: 7002
Con: 3718
LibDem: 2853

Stirling: SNP Gain from Labour

2007-05-04T03:23:00.000+01:00

Sweet Baby Jesus!!!!!!!!! Credit goes to the Eugenides network for this one...

Crawford: 10447
Jackson (Lab): 9827
Con: 8081
LibDem: 3693
Other: 577

Constituency Projection 5

2007-05-04T03:21:00.000+01:00

Labour 36 (down 10)
SNP 23 (up 14)
Conservatives 2 (down 1)
Liberal Democrats 11 (down 2)
Independent 1 (down 1)

Angus: SNP Hold

2007-05-04T03:16:00.000+01:00

Welsh: 15686
Con: 7443
Lab: 5032
LibDem: 3799