Sunday, January 14, 2007

Sunday Times/YouGov

Meanwhile, the Sunday Times has its own YouGov poll, in which Holyrood would look like this:

SNP 46
Labour 43
Liberal Democrats 19
Conservatives 18
Greens 2
Others 1

While Scotland would send 39 Labour MPs to Westminster, 10 SNP MPs, 7 Liberal Democrats and 2 Conservatives, plus the Speaker.

Channel 4/YouGov poll

Much has been discussed of the YouGov poll for Channel 4 this week. Using my own model, I get the following result for Holyrood:

SNP 45
Labour 40
Conservatives 18
Liberal Democrats 17
Greens 7
Others 2

This poll also commissioned results for Westminster and the Local Elections. In the Westminster poll I get: Labour 37, SNP 9, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrats 6, Speaker 1. For the local poll, I forecast most Councils being hung (as you'd expect with STV), but Independents could hold onto the Island councils and Highland. Labour will hold onto North Lanarkshire and if the SNP take the Provostship in Clackmannanshire, they'll control that council. On the figures, Labour would be the largest group in 10 Councils, the SNP in 7, the Liberal Democrats in 5 and the Tories in 4. Independents could still form the largest groups in 6 Councils.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

On dual mandates

The Herald has picked up on LibDem criticism that Alex Salmond wants to be MSP for Gordon AND remain MP for Banff & Buchan until the next Westminster Election. What they have all forgotten is that Donald Gorrie was elected MSP for Central Scotland in 1999, and remained as MP for Edinburgh West until the 2001 Election.

You can read more about this at my other blog.