Wednesday, November 29, 2006

November Scotsman Poll: Results in Full

SNP 44-49 (up 17-22 on 2003)
Labour 36-40 (down 10-14)
Liberal Democrats 21-22 (up 4-5)
Conservatives 15-16 (down 2-3 on 2003)
Greens 6 (down 1)
SSP 1 (down 5)
Independent (Canavan) 1

ICM/Scotsman Poll: West of Scotland

SNP: 37%/37%
Labour: 27%/22%
LibDems: 16%/20%
Conservatives: 11%/12%
Green: 4%/5%
SSP: 1%/3%

These results would lead to a total collapse for Labour, with only Eastwood remaining in the Party's hands. Greenock & Inverclyde would transfer to LibDem control, while Clydebank & Milngavie, Cunninghame North, Dumbarton, Paisley North, Paisley South and West Renfrewshire would be gained by the SNP, who could also win Strathkelvin & Bearsden from Jean Turner. In full:

SNP 7 (all constituencies, up 4)
Labour 4 (1 constituency, 3 regional, down 4)
LibDems 3 (1 constituency, 2 regional, up 2)
Conservatives 2 (both regional, no change)
SSP 0 (down 1)

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

ICM/Scotsman Poll: South of Scotland

SNP: 33%/31%
Labour: 25%/23%
LibDems: 23%/24%
Conservatives: 13%/16%
Green: 1%/2%
SSP: 1%/1%
Solidarity: 0%/1%

This poll sees the SNP win back Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, which it lost in 2003. They could also take Clydesdale and Cunninghame South from Labour, but the strong LibDem showing could stop them from taking Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale as well. Further, the LibDems' ratings have them winning East Lothian from Labour, whose only saving grace could be the Tories' poor showing in Ayr allowing them to win back the seat they lost six years ago. The full results:

SNP 5 (3 constituencies, 2 regional, up 2)
Labour 4 (3 constituencies, 1 regional, down 1)
LibDems 4 (3 constituencies, 1 regional, up 2)
Conservatives 3 (all regional, down 1)
Greens 0 (down 1)
SSP 0 (down 1 on 2003)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: North East Scotland

SNP: 32%/29%
LibDems: 24%/20%
Conservatives: 18%/20%
Labour: 17%/14%
SSP: 4%/5%
Green: 3%/10%
Solidarity: 1%/0%

The North East is seen as the SNP's traditional stronghold, but there little sign of an advance on these figures. Victory in Aberdeen Central and Dundee West is contingent on at least some support for the SNP on the Constituency vote from the SSP and Greens, while if these figures were replicated in the election, Alex Salmond's best hope for returning to Holyrood would come from failure to win those two seats. The full results:

SNP 5-6 (4-6 constituencies, 0-1 regional, up 0-1)
LibDems 3-4 (3 constituencies, 0-1 regional, up 0-1)*
Conservatives 3-4 (all regional, up 0-1)*
Labour 2 (0-2 constituencies, 0-2 regional, down 2)
Green 2 (both regional, up 1)

* The LibDems are tied on the Regional Vote. In the event that Labour hold their two North Eastern constituencies, the current figures would provide a vacancy for either a fourth Tory Regional MSP or a Liberal Democrat Regional MSP, but not both.

Monday, November 27, 2006

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Mid Scotland & Fife

SNP: 47%/40%
Labour: 33%/31%
LibDems: 10%/12%
Conservatives: 6%/6%
SSP: 3%/3%
Green: 0%/5%

Despite the swing to the SNP, the results in Mid Scotland & Fife would lead to only one change: Tricia Marwick would win Central Fife.

SNP 7 (4 constituencies, 3 regional, up 2)
Labour 6 (4 constituencies, 2 regional, up 1)
LibDems 2 (1 constituency, 1 regional, no change)
Conservatives 1 (regional, down 2 on 2003)
Greens 0 (down 1)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Lothians

SNP: 38%/36%
Labour: 30%/23%
LibDems: 10%/12%
Conservatives: 10%/11%
SSP: 7%/6%
Green: 4%/12%

The moral of the poll in the Lothians is that a small sample size can produce odd results. Even if the SNP sees all SSP and Green voters support other parties on the Constituency vote, it is still likely to pick up Linlithgow and Livingston, but Labour will win back Edinburgh Pentlands from David McLetchie and Edinburgh South from Mike Pringle. Nothing wrong there you might think (apart from Labour winning back seats). But if the SNP picks up an average level of SSP/Green support, then not only does Ian McKee win Pentlands for the SNP (I'm sure he's good, but can anyone be that good?!), but the party wins Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Edinburgh North & Leith, and Midlothian. If the SNP picks up all Constituency votes from the SSP and Greens, then it will 'scoop the pool', picking up all nine Lothian constituencies. It's also worth bearing in mind that Margo MacDonald does not appear on the poll. She could affect the final outcome. The full result:

SNP 6-9 (2-9 constituencies, 0-4 regional, up 4-7)
Labour 3-6 (0-6 constituencies, 0-3 regional, down 0-3)
Greens 2 (both regional, no change)
LibDems 1-2 (0-1 constituency, 0-1 regional, down 0-1)
Conservatives 1 (regional, down 1)
SSP 0-1 (0-1 regional, down 0-1)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Highlands & Islands

SNP: 44%/30%
LibDems: 25%/35%
Labour: 12%/14%
Conservatives: 11%/17%
Green: 0%/2%

The figures have Jim Mather beating the LibDem Deputy Finance Minister George Lyon in Argyll & Bute. The SNP would also win in the Western Isles. The full figures:

SNP 5 (4 constituencies, 1 regional, up 1)
LibDems 5 (4 constituencies, 1 regional, no change)
Conservatives 3 (all regional, up 1)
Labour 2 (both regional, down 1)
Greens 0 (down 1)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Glasgow

Labour: 44%/35%
SNP: 28%/30%
Conservatives: 11%/7%
LibDems: 9%/9%
Green: 4%/14%
SSP: 3%/3%

On these figures, Nicola Sturgeon will win in Govan. Additional SSP and Green support for the SNP will see Sandra White become the MSP for Kelvin. The full result:

Labour 8-9 (all constituencies, down 1-2)
SNP 4-5 (1-2 constituencies, 3 regional, up 2-3)
Greens 2 (both regional, up 1)
LibDems 1 (regional, no change)
Conservatives 1 (regional, no change)
SSP 0 (down 2 on 2003)

ICM/Scotsman Poll: Central Scotland

(Constiuency Result/Regional Result)

Labour: 41%/37%
SNP: 32%/29%
Conservatives: 15%/10%
LibDems: 7%/11%
Green: 4%/1%
SSP: 3%/8%

The SNP are on course to gain Cumbernauld & Kilsyth and Kilmarnock & Loudoun. If the Party picks up the Constituency votes from SSP & Green supporters, then Linda Fabiani could win East Kilbride as well, unseating Health Minister Andy Kerr. Taking into account the list, I predict the following result based on this month's poll:

Labour 7 (6-7 constituencies, 0-1 list, down 2)
SNP 5 (2-3 constituencies, 2-3 list, up 2)
LibDems 2 (both regional, up 1)
Conservatives 1 (regional, no change)
SSP 1 (regional, no change)
Independent (Canavan) 1 (Falkirk West, no change)
SSCUP 0 (down 1)

Monday, July 03, 2006


Rather than post the full results, I'll just leave you with a link to Anthony Wells's excellent site on opinion polls.

The key finding is an SNP lead of 2% on both the Constituency and Regional Votes over Labour. However, that's not enough for the SNP to become the largest party - I estimate that they'll be two or three seats short of that. Further, no party will have enough seats on these figures to command a blocking minority that would prevent the Parliament voting for early elections.

Saturday, July 01, 2006

SNP List: Central Scotland

1. Alex Neil MSP (MSP for Central Scotland 1999-)
2. Michael Matheson MSP (MSP for Central Scotland 1999-)
3. Linda Fabiani MSP (MSP for Central Scotland 1999-)
4. Douglas Henderson (MP for East Aberdeenshire 1974-79)
5. Jamie Hepburn
6. Christina McKelvie
7. John Wilson
8. Marion Fellows
9. Frances McGlinshey

The 2003 numbers would have a return for all of the sitting MSPs, and a collapse in the SSP vote could allow Douglas Henderson in. However, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth and Kilmarnock & Loudoun are key SNP targets: should they pick up both of these then the chances of them holding onto all three List seats are slim. This puts Linda Fabiani's seat in jeopardy, unless she can unseat Finance Minister Andy Kerr in East Kilbride.

SNP List: Glasgow

1. Nicola Sturgeon MSP (MSP for Glasgow 1999-)
2. Bashir Ahmad
3. Sandra White MSP (MSP for Glasgow 1999-)
4. Bob Doris
5. Bill Kidd
6. Anne McLaughlin
7. James Dornan
8. Margaret Park
9. John McLaughlin

Based on the 2003 numbers, Scotland is on course for its first Asian MSP, but Sandra White's position is precarious. However, Sturgeon is in a strong position to win Govan next year. Combine that with the SSP's current weakness, and White could still return. And if the SSP collapse is bad enough, then you can't rule out a seat for Bob Doris either.

SNP List: Highlands & Islands

1. Fergus Ewing MSP (MSP for Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber 1999-)
2. Jim Mather MSP (MSP for Highlands & Islands 2003-)
3. Rob Gibson MSP (MSP for Highlands & Islands 2003-)
4. Dave Thompson
5. Mhairi Will
6. Robert Wynd

At first glance, the numbers would support re-election for Mather and Gibson (Although Ewing's Consituency is marginal, I haven't yet seen a poll that would have him lose the seat). However, in Gibson's case, there is a potential fly in the ointment: should Alasdair Allan repeat Angus MacNeil's success in the Western Isles, then the likely scenario is that the SNP will have only one List seat, which will be Mather.

SNP List: Lothians

1. Kenny MacAskill MSP (MSP for Lothians 1999-)
2. Fiona Hyslop MSP (MSP for Lothians 1999-)
3. Ian McKee
4. Angela Constance
5. Stefan Tymkewycz
6. Shirley-Anne Somerville
7. Colin Beattie
8. Graham Sutherland
9. Davie Hutchison
10. Alex Orr
11. Sheena Cleland

It was this list which caused so much controversy in 2003, with Margo MacDonald's fifth place being the catalyst for her departure to stand as an Indpendent (she's aiming to repeat her success next year). The figures suggest a return for the incumbents, though should Fiona Hyslop win Linlithgow (as is likely), that will pave the way for Ian McKee's entry to Holyrood. Don't rule out MSP status for Angela Constance either: she's standing in Livingston, where she slashed Labour's majority in the By-Election to replace Robin Cook at Westminster in 2005.

SNP List: Mid Scotland & Fife

1. John Swinney MSP (MP for North Tayside 1997-2001; MSP for North Tayside 1999-)
2. Bruce Crawford MSP (MSP for Mid Scotland & Fife 1999-)
3. Roseanna Cunningham MSP (MP for Perth & Kinross 1995-1997; MP for Perth 1997-2001; MSP for Perth 1999-)
4. Tricia Marwick MSP (MSP for Mid Scotland & Fife 1999-)
5. Keith Brown
6. Christopher Harvie
7. Roderick Campbell
8. Malcolm Balfour

The numbers forecast re-election for Crawford and Marwick. Swinney and Cunningham are defending their constituencies and though Swinney should be safe, Cunningham's majority is somewhat weak. Also, Keith Brown is the SNP's candidate for Ochil to replace Presiding Officer George Reid, so one way or another, we might see him in Parliament next year.

SNP List: North East Scotland

1. Alex Salmond MP (MP for Banff & Buchan 1987-; MSP for Banff & Buchan 1999-2001)
2. Brian Adam MSP (MSP for North East Scotland 1999-2003; MSP for Aberdeen North 2003-)
3. Maureen Watt MSP (MSP for North East Scotland 2006-)
4. Nigel Don
5. Karen Shirron
6. Dennis Robertson

Shona Robison is banking on retaining Dundee East, which, given her wafer-thin majority, isn't assured. However, the 2003 figures would have Salmond making a return to Holyrood to be installed as Leader of the SNP Group. If, however, he fails to win Gordon, and the SNP take the marginals of Dundee West and Aberdeen Central, then he will have to lead the Party from outside the Parliament. Incidentally, Maureen Watt, who became an MSP once Richard Lochhead stood down to fight the Moray By-Election, appears in a weak position, and the prospects of her serving beyond May look very grim indeed.

SNP List: South of Scotland

1. Christine Grahame MSP (MSP for South of Scotland 1999-)
2. Mike Russell (MSP for South of Scotland 1999-2003)
3. Adam Ingram MSP (MSP for South of Scotland 1999-)
4. Alasdair Morgan MSP (MP for Galloway & Upper Nithsdale 1997-2001; MSP for Galloway & Upper Nithsdale 1999-2003; MSP for South of Scotland 2003-)
5. Aileen Campbell
6. Aileen Orr
7. Andrew Sharp
8. Duncan Ross
9. Iain White
10. Andrew Wood

On the 2003 figures, it looks like a third term for Grahame and Ingram, and a return to Holyrood for Mike Russell. Morgan, however, is in a weak position: he needs to re-take Galloway and Upper Nithsdale to be sure of a seat.

SNP List: West of Scotland

1. Stewart Maxwell MSP (MSP for West of Scotland 2003-)
2. Gil Paterson (MSP for Central Scotland 1999-2003)
3. Kenneth Gibson (MSP for Glasgow 1999-2003)
4. Bill Wilson
5. Stuart McMillan
6. Fiona McLeod (MSP for West of Scotland 1999-2003)
7. Graeme McCormick
8. Bill Martin
9. Andrew Doig
10. Robin Easton
11. James Robb
12. Alex McLean
13. Anthony Gurney

Maxwell's return to Holyrood looks assured, and Paterson and Gibson look like they're in with a shout as well, but only if either a) the SNP don't do as well as expected on the Constituencies, or b), they're in the Constituencies that the SNP win.