Friday, April 13, 2007

Glasgow

Anniesland - just the 4 here, and a likely return for Labour's Bill Butler.

Baillieston - in addition to the Big 4, Scottish Christian Party founder George Hargreaves has put his name forward for election. This is the constituency of Minister for Parliamentary Business Margaret Curran - she of the excitable hands - and it looks like her hands will be moving furiously in the Parliamentary Chamber once again.

Cathcart - alongside the Big 4 we have independent hospital campaigner David Smith. Hospital campaigners do odd things to election results, but there was one in this Constituency in 2003, it was Pat Lally, and he mustered only 2,419 votes and fifth place. Granted, he did beat the LibDem candidate, but that's scant consolation. So Charlie Gordon of Labour looks the likely winner.

Govan - as well as the Big 4 we have Asif Nasir standing as an Independent, and we also have a Communist candidate, which I was going to link to, but I don't want MI5 on my back. Anyway, Gordon Jackson is, amazingly, the incumbent Labour candidate, but his challenger is (again) Nicola Sturgeon, who goes into this Election as the SNP Deputy Leader, so between that, the general malaise with Labour, the small swing required for her to win it, and the fact that Gordon Jackson is Gordon Jackson, I'm putting this down as an SNP win.

Kelvin - as well as the Big 4, the Greens have put a candidate forward here - this is a shock move, as they have been reluctant to nominate Constituency candidates in the past, and if they were going to start, Edinburgh would be the logical place to do so - along with an SCP candidate and Independent Glasgow City Councillor Niall Walker. Pauline McNeill is the Labour incumbent, but the numbers have this going to Sandra White of the SNP. However, the presence of a Green here could alter the dynamic of the contest.

Maryhill - just the Big 4 here, with Tourism Minister Patricia Ferguson likely to return to Holyrood.

Pollok - just the Big 4 again here, which will throw the 6,016 people who voted for Tommy Sheridan in 2003. It's hard to guess what their destination will be (though it probably won't be the Tories), so going of the strengths of the main parties, it looks like Johann Lamont will hold this for Labour.

Rutherglen - the Big 4 plus an SCP candidate. Janis Hughes is standing down, so the Labour candidate is James Kelly. He's the likely winner.

Shettleston - the SCP have a candidate here as well as the Big 4. This is safe Labour, though, so Frank McAveety will be back.

Springburn - again, the Big 4 plus the SCP. This looks like safe Labour territory, and Paul Martin - the son of Michael Martin, the Speaker of the House of Commons - is the likely victor.

The Regional List - the Big 8 are all here, along with Scottish Voice, the SCP (as you'd expect, given their presence in the Constituencies), the Scottish Unionists, Socialist Labour, UKIP, the BNP, the CPA, the Communist candidate, Alastair McConnachie of Independent Green Voice, Neil Craig of the 9% Growth Party, a Publican Candidate and a Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers candidate. There are also three Independents, James Cruickshank (the man responsible for 'The Digger'), Muhammad Shoaib and Asif Nasir. This election is the first electoral test for Tommy Sheridan's new party Solidarity, and while polling numbers aren't favourable, I expect Sheridan to be one of the Regional MSPs, along with three SNP MSPs (Bashir Ahmad, who will become the first ever MSP from an ethnic minority, Bob Doris and Bill Kidd). Robert Brown of the LibDems, Bill Aitken of the Tories and Patrick Harvie of the Greens are all on course for re-election.

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