Friday, April 13, 2007

Mid Scotland & Fife

Central Fife - no major surprises here: it's just the Big 4. The SNP's Tricia Marwick looks like the favourite for this seat, at the expense of Labour incumbent Christine May. This used to be former First Minister Henry McLeish's seat, but those days are long gone.

Dunfermline East - just the Big 4 here, and Helen Eadie's position looks fairly safe.

Dunfermline West - along with the Big 4, Susan Archibald of Scottish Voice has made an appearance. Despite the LibDem win in the Dunfermline & West Fife By-Election, this looks like a pretty solid Labour seat, though second place last time around went to an Independent who isn't trying again. If Scott Barrie can win back just a few of that Independent's 4,584 votes, he should be safe.

Kirkcaldy - just the Big 4 here, and Labour's Marilyn Livingstone looks like holding on, despite a strong challenge from the SNP's Christopher Harvie. For Labour to lose this seat would be a huge embarrassment to Gordon Brown, who is, after all, the MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.

North East Fife - the Big 4 plus Independent Tony Campbell. LibDem incumbent Iain Smith looks like keeping his seat.

North Tayside - just the Big 4 again. Former SNP Leader John Swinney looks like the winner. The main challenger is Tory Deputy Leader Murdo Fraser.

Ochil - this seat was Presiding Officer George Reid's, but he's standing down and his last act as PO will be to oversee the swearing in of the MSPs and the election of his successor. This was a Lab/SNP marginal in 1999, and Reid won it for the SNP in 2003, helped in no small part by the then MSP Richard Simpson's outburst that striking firefighters were 'fascist bastards'. The numbers have Keith Brown holding onto this for the SNP, but is that based on support for his Party or his predecessor? We shall see.

Perth - the Big 4 plus the Free Scotland Party. Former SNP Deputy Leader Roseanna Cunningham only just held onto this seat in 2003, but looks like securing her position again this time round.

Stirling - the Big 4 plus the Peace Party. Sylvia Jackson looks like keeping the seat for Labour.

The Regional List - the Big 8, plus Scottish Voice, UKIP, Socialist Labour, the BNP, CPA and SCP. Also the Free Scotland Party and the Publican Party. Right now, the SNP look like getting three seats (incumbent Bruce Crawford along with Christopher Harvie and Roderick Campbell), the Tories two (Fraser and Liz Smith, so Ted Brocklebank is in trouble), Labour one (John Park) and the LibDems one (Alex Cole-Hamilton, who came above sitting MSP Andrew Arbuckle in the rankings).

No comments: