West of Scotland

Clydebank & Milngavie - only the Big 4 are standing here. On current standings, Des McNulty will get back into Holyrood.

Cunninghame North - As well as the Big 4, Campbell Martin is standing. Martin was elected as an SNP MSP last time, but was expelled from the Party in 2004. The numbers would suggest that Kenneth Gibson, the SNP's candidate and former Glasgow MSP, will win, but Martin's intervention could jeopardise that. However, the SSP aren't fielding a Constituency candidate, so that might be a more logical source for Martin's votes.

Dumbarton - There has been no challenge to Jackie Baillie from disgruntled ex-Labour Councillors. There is, however, a candidate from the Scottish Jacobite Party. Anyway, Jackie Baillie should be fairly safe here on current numbers.

Eastwood - The Big 4 plus Independent Councillor Frank McGee. Ken McIntosh should be returned, but there are two important things to look out for: firstly, this seat, once the Tories' safest in Scotland, will be a good bellweather of Tory fortunes. If they do well here, they have cause for optimism, but if they weaken the Party is doomed. Secondly, the SNP candidate is Stewart Maxwell, who was a Regional MSP before Dissolution. This could give him an increased profile, and more votes. Could he be a viable challenger for the seat (or its successor) in 2011?

Greenock & Inverclyde - Just the big 4 here. Labour's Duncan McNeill to survive a chalenge from Environment Minister Ross Finnie.

Paisley North - Along with the Big 4, the SSP are fielding a candidate here in Iain Hogg. Hogg is a former Labour Councillor who left the Party in disgust, while Plott is a former SSP Candidate. Wendy Alexander's position is weak, and recent polls have her losing her seat, but the SSP presence could end up saving her.

Paisley South - Just the Big 4. Hugh Henry is in real trouble here, and we could well see a return to Holyrood for Fiona McLeod, a Regional MSP in the 1999-2003 Parliament.

Strathkelvin & Bearsden - The Big 4, along with incumbent Independent Jean Turner, and a Scottish Christian Party candidate. At one point, I would have said that this seat will go to Labour's David Whitton, but Labour's current weakness in the polls makes that pretty doubtful. At present, Turner looks like winning re-election.

West Renfrewshire - Just the Big 4. This promises to be an interesting contest. Deputy Presiding Officer is under threat, primarily from Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003 and based on current projections would take the seat. However, the Tory challenger is Party Leader Annabel Goldie. Her predecessor managed to take Edinburgh Pentlands in 2003, and the result here will be a mark of her personal standing and performance. If she doesn't at least increase her vote, she's in trouble.

The Regional Vote - all the Parties with representation in Holyrood (the Big 8) are fielding candidates. They're joined on the Ballot Paper by Scottish Voice, the BNP, the Christian People's Alliance, who will be fighting with the Scottish Christian Party for the same vote, the Save our NHS Group, the Jacobites (well, one Jacobite), the Scottish Unionist Party, the Socialist Equality Party, the Socialist Labour Party (that's four Socialist Parties - how many does the West need?!) and UKIPScotland. On current figures, we're looking at two Tories (Goldie and Jackson Carlaw), two LibDems (Finnie and Gordon Macdonald), and depending on the outcome of Paisley North, 1-2 Labour MSPs (Stuark Clark with Marie Rooney) and 1-2 SNP MSPs (Maxwell and former Central Scotland MSP Gil Paterson).