ICM/Scotsman Poll: Central Scotland

(Constiuency Result/Regional Result)

Labour: 41%/37%
SNP: 32%/29%
Conservatives: 15%/10%
LibDems: 7%/11%
Green: 4%/1%
SSP: 3%/8%

The SNP are on course to gain Cumbernauld & Kilsyth and Kilmarnock & Loudoun. If the Party picks up the Constituency votes from SSP & Green supporters, then Linda Fabiani could win East Kilbride as well, unseating Health Minister Andy Kerr. Taking into account the list, I predict the following result based on this month's poll:

Labour 7 (6-7 constituencies, 0-1 list, down 2)
SNP 5 (2-3 constituencies, 2-3 list, up 2)
LibDems 2 (both regional, up 1)
Conservatives 1 (regional, no change)
SSP 1 (regional, no change)
Independent (Canavan) 1 (Falkirk West, no change)
SSCUP 0 (down 1)