ICM/Scotsman Poll: Lothians

SNP: 38%/36%
Labour: 30%/23%
LibDems: 10%/12%
Conservatives: 10%/11%
SSP: 7%/6%
Green: 4%/12%

The moral of the poll in the Lothians is that a small sample size can produce odd results. Even if the SNP sees all SSP and Green voters support other parties on the Constituency vote, it is still likely to pick up Linlithgow and Livingston, but Labour will win back Edinburgh Pentlands from David McLetchie and Edinburgh South from Mike Pringle. Nothing wrong there you might think (apart from Labour winning back seats). But if the SNP picks up an average level of SSP/Green support, then not only does Ian McKee win Pentlands for the SNP (I'm sure he's good, but can anyone be that good?!), but the party wins Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Edinburgh North & Leith, and Midlothian. If the SNP picks up all Constituency votes from the SSP and Greens, then it will 'scoop the pool', picking up all nine Lothian constituencies. It's also worth bearing in mind that Margo MacDonald does not appear on the poll. She could affect the final outcome. The full result:

SNP 6-9 (2-9 constituencies, 0-4 regional, up 4-7)
Labour 3-6 (0-6 constituencies, 0-3 regional, down 0-3)
Greens 2 (both regional, no change)
LibDems 1-2 (0-1 constituency, 0-1 regional, down 0-1)
Conservatives 1 (regional, down 1)
SSP 0-1 (0-1 regional, down 0-1)