Airdrie & Shotts - the Big 4 here, along with Mev Brown of NHSFirst, who has decamped to Central Scotland after originally planning to stand in the Lothians. Despite that, Labour incumbent Karen Whitefield looks the likely winner.
Coatbridge & Chryston - the Big 4, plus with Independent campaigner (and blogger) Julie McAnulty, and Gaille McCann, a former Glasgow Labour Councillor who has rather uncharitably decided to put her name forward against Julie McAnulty, despite the fact that McCann is the NHSFirst candidate, and Julie is standing on a pro-NHS, anti-PFI ticket (have I got that right, Julie?). I've had my doubts about NHSFirst in the past, and this only serves to compound them. In any case, the presence of both of these candidates makes this race far more interesting than it would otherwise have been as the numbers have this as a solid Labour win for incumbent Elaine Smith.
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth - just the Big 4, and Labour incumbent Cathie Craigie is defending a majority of just 520 against the SNP. In short, SNP candidate Jamie Hepburn has to do something incredibly stupid if he's not to get elected.
East Kilbride - just the Big 4 again. A brief shout-out goes to Dave Clark, LibDem candidate and my successor as Convener of the Edinburgh University Debates Union. The shout out over with, he hasn't got that much of a chance: this is between Health Minister Andy Kerr and the SNP's Linda Fabiani. At the moment, Fabiani looks like the winner, and with Kerr's name being mentioned as a possible successor to Jack McConnell, this will be a major scalp for the SNP.
Falkirk East - just the Big 4 here, and Labour incumbent Cathy Peattie looks like the winner. However, the SNP candidate is Annabelle Ewing, the former MP for Perth. A possible shock.
Falkirk West - just the Big 4 in a seat that defies calculation. This was Dennis Canavan's seat, but he's stepping down. Looking at Canavan-free ballot papers post 1999, Labour won the By-Election that Canavan forced by stepping down early from Westminster, and MP Eric Joyce was re-elected in 2001. Joyce was re-elected as MP for Falkirk (the successor seat) in 2005, and Labour came top in Falkirk West in the Regional Vote in 2003, so at first glance, this is appears to be a win for Dennis Goldie, the outspoken and controversial Labour candidate. However, that lead on the 2003 Regional Vote could be wiped out the SNP as this time according to current polls, especially as the candidate, Michael Matheson, has been a Regional MSP for eight years. I wasn't sure at first, but now I reckon that Matheson might just do it, especially as he has the backing of one of Canavan's key local supporters.
Hamilton North & Bellshill - the Big 4, plus an NHSFirst candidate and independent Gordon Weir. Labour incumbent Michael McMahon looks like the winner here.
Hamilton South - the Big 4 along with Independent South Lanarkshire Councillor Michael McGlynn. This has been Finance Minister Tom McCabe's seat since 1999, and it looks like it will be again after 2007.
Kilmarnock & Loudoun - just the Big 4 here, and Labour's Margaret Jamieson has a small majority, which should be overturned easily by the SNP's Willie Coffey.
Motherwell & Wishaw - in addition to the Big 4, we have an SCP candidate, a candidate from the Anti-Trident Party, and John Swinburne, the SSCUP Leader. However, seeing as the Labour candidate and incumbent is a Mr. J. McConnell, the Labour Party would probably end up with something like 10 seats nationally if the First Minister were to lose his seat.
The Regional List - aside from the Big 8, NHSFirst are standing here, with founder Mev Brown heading the list. Brown was supposed to stand in the Lothians and Gaille McCann was supposed to be Number 1 here, but the Party entered into a pact with Scottish Voice, and this was the price that Brown paid. The BNP, CPA, Publicans, SCP, Scottish Unionists, Socialist Labour and UKIP are all standing as well. The Tories' Margaret Mitchell will no doubt get re-elected, and the LibDems' Hugh O'Donnell should replace Donald Gorrie, who is retiring. Depending on the Falkirk West result, Labour will get 1 or 2 seats (John Pentland will get in, Margaret Duffy is the second), and the SNP will get 3 or 4: Alex Neil will definitely be in, Michael Matheson will be an MSP one way or another, Christina McKelvie should get in as well, and John Wilson should also get elected.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Glasgow
Anniesland - just the 4 here, and a likely return for Labour's Bill Butler.
Baillieston - in addition to the Big 4, Scottish Christian Party founder George Hargreaves has put his name forward for election. This is the constituency of Minister for Parliamentary Business Margaret Curran - she of the excitable hands - and it looks like her hands will be moving furiously in the Parliamentary Chamber once again.
Cathcart - alongside the Big 4 we have independent hospital campaigner David Smith. Hospital campaigners do odd things to election results, but there was one in this Constituency in 2003, it was Pat Lally, and he mustered only 2,419 votes and fifth place. Granted, he did beat the LibDem candidate, but that's scant consolation. So Charlie Gordon of Labour looks the likely winner.
Govan - as well as the Big 4 we have Asif Nasir standing as an Independent, and we also have a Communist candidate, which I was going to link to, but I don't want MI5 on my back. Anyway, Gordon Jackson is, amazingly, the incumbent Labour candidate, but his challenger is (again) Nicola Sturgeon, who goes into this Election as the SNP Deputy Leader, so between that, the general malaise with Labour, the small swing required for her to win it, and the fact that Gordon Jackson is Gordon Jackson, I'm putting this down as an SNP win.
Kelvin - as well as the Big 4, the Greens have put a candidate forward here - this is a shock move, as they have been reluctant to nominate Constituency candidates in the past, and if they were going to start, Edinburgh would be the logical place to do so - along with an SCP candidate and Independent Glasgow City Councillor Niall Walker. Pauline McNeill is the Labour incumbent, but the numbers have this going to Sandra White of the SNP. However, the presence of a Green here could alter the dynamic of the contest.
Maryhill - just the Big 4 here, with Tourism Minister Patricia Ferguson likely to return to Holyrood.
Pollok - just the Big 4 again here, which will throw the 6,016 people who voted for Tommy Sheridan in 2003. It's hard to guess what their destination will be (though it probably won't be the Tories), so going of the strengths of the main parties, it looks like Johann Lamont will hold this for Labour.
Rutherglen - the Big 4 plus an SCP candidate. Janis Hughes is standing down, so the Labour candidate is James Kelly. He's the likely winner.
Shettleston - the SCP have a candidate here as well as the Big 4. This is safe Labour, though, so Frank McAveety will be back.
Springburn - again, the Big 4 plus the SCP. This looks like safe Labour territory, and Paul Martin - the son of Michael Martin, the Speaker of the House of Commons - is the likely victor.
The Regional List - the Big 8 are all here, along with Scottish Voice, the SCP (as you'd expect, given their presence in the Constituencies), the Scottish Unionists, Socialist Labour, UKIP, the BNP, the CPA, the Communist candidate, Alastair McConnachie of Independent Green Voice, Neil Craig of the 9% Growth Party, a Publican Candidate and a Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers candidate. There are also three Independents, James Cruickshank (the man responsible for 'The Digger'), Muhammad Shoaib and Asif Nasir. This election is the first electoral test for Tommy Sheridan's new party Solidarity, and while polling numbers aren't favourable, I expect Sheridan to be one of the Regional MSPs, along with three SNP MSPs (Bashir Ahmad, who will become the first ever MSP from an ethnic minority, Bob Doris and Bill Kidd). Robert Brown of the LibDems, Bill Aitken of the Tories and Patrick Harvie of the Greens are all on course for re-election.
Baillieston - in addition to the Big 4, Scottish Christian Party founder George Hargreaves has put his name forward for election. This is the constituency of Minister for Parliamentary Business Margaret Curran - she of the excitable hands - and it looks like her hands will be moving furiously in the Parliamentary Chamber once again.
Cathcart - alongside the Big 4 we have independent hospital campaigner David Smith. Hospital campaigners do odd things to election results, but there was one in this Constituency in 2003, it was Pat Lally, and he mustered only 2,419 votes and fifth place. Granted, he did beat the LibDem candidate, but that's scant consolation. So Charlie Gordon of Labour looks the likely winner.
Govan - as well as the Big 4 we have Asif Nasir standing as an Independent, and we also have a Communist candidate, which I was going to link to, but I don't want MI5 on my back. Anyway, Gordon Jackson is, amazingly, the incumbent Labour candidate, but his challenger is (again) Nicola Sturgeon, who goes into this Election as the SNP Deputy Leader, so between that, the general malaise with Labour, the small swing required for her to win it, and the fact that Gordon Jackson is Gordon Jackson, I'm putting this down as an SNP win.
Kelvin - as well as the Big 4, the Greens have put a candidate forward here - this is a shock move, as they have been reluctant to nominate Constituency candidates in the past, and if they were going to start, Edinburgh would be the logical place to do so - along with an SCP candidate and Independent Glasgow City Councillor Niall Walker. Pauline McNeill is the Labour incumbent, but the numbers have this going to Sandra White of the SNP. However, the presence of a Green here could alter the dynamic of the contest.
Maryhill - just the Big 4 here, with Tourism Minister Patricia Ferguson likely to return to Holyrood.
Pollok - just the Big 4 again here, which will throw the 6,016 people who voted for Tommy Sheridan in 2003. It's hard to guess what their destination will be (though it probably won't be the Tories), so going of the strengths of the main parties, it looks like Johann Lamont will hold this for Labour.
Rutherglen - the Big 4 plus an SCP candidate. Janis Hughes is standing down, so the Labour candidate is James Kelly. He's the likely winner.
Shettleston - the SCP have a candidate here as well as the Big 4. This is safe Labour, though, so Frank McAveety will be back.
Springburn - again, the Big 4 plus the SCP. This looks like safe Labour territory, and Paul Martin - the son of Michael Martin, the Speaker of the House of Commons - is the likely victor.
The Regional List - the Big 8 are all here, along with Scottish Voice, the SCP (as you'd expect, given their presence in the Constituencies), the Scottish Unionists, Socialist Labour, UKIP, the BNP, the CPA, the Communist candidate, Alastair McConnachie of Independent Green Voice, Neil Craig of the 9% Growth Party, a Publican Candidate and a Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers candidate. There are also three Independents, James Cruickshank (the man responsible for 'The Digger'), Muhammad Shoaib and Asif Nasir. This election is the first electoral test for Tommy Sheridan's new party Solidarity, and while polling numbers aren't favourable, I expect Sheridan to be one of the Regional MSPs, along with three SNP MSPs (Bashir Ahmad, who will become the first ever MSP from an ethnic minority, Bob Doris and Bill Kidd). Robert Brown of the LibDems, Bill Aitken of the Tories and Patrick Harvie of the Greens are all on course for re-election.
Highlands & Islands
Argyll & Bute - just the Big 4 here. George Lyon of the LibDems is likely to (just) fend off a challenge from the SNP's Jim Mather.
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - the Big 4 plus Independent James Campbell. LibDem incumbent Jamie Stone looks like the favourite here.
Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber - just the 4 here, with Fergus Ewing likely to hold onto his seat.
Moray - again, just the Big 4, and it's hard to see past Richard Lochhead holding onto the seat.
Orkney - along with the Big 4, Barry Johnson is an Independent candidate. This was former LibDem Leader Jim Wallace's Constituency, but he's standing down now, though Liam McArthur is likely to hold onto the seat for the Liberal Democrats.
Ross, Skye & Inverness West - the Big 4 are standing, as well as a Scottish Enterprise Party candidate. This is a fairly safe LibDem seat, and John Farquhar Munro is likely to get back in.
Shetland - just the usual suspects here, and LibDem Deputy Leader and Transport Minister Tavish Scott is pretty much certain to return to Holyrood.
Western Isles - again, just the Big 4, and if any seat in the Region is worth watching, it's this one. Labour's Alasdair Morrison is the incumbent, but he held it in 2003 with a majority of just 720, and the Party lost the seat at Westminster to the SNP, so Alasdair Allan must surely be the favourite.
The Regional List - as well as the Big 8, Scottish Voice are on the ballot paper, along with the BNP, the CPA, the Publicans, the SCP, the SEP, Socialist Labour and UKIP. In terms of winners and losers, Labour's likely loss of the Western Isles will be compensated by regaining the third List seat that they lost in 2003, so Peter Peacock will be re-elected, Rhoda Grant will make a return to the Parliament - she was third on the List in 2003 - and David Stewart, former MP for Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber will get in as well. The SNP will see Jim Mather and Rob Gibson re-elected, and the Conservatives will retain their two seats, allowing a return to Holyrood for Mary Scanlon, who stood down to contest the Moray By-Election, and re-election for Jamie McGrigor.
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - the Big 4 plus Independent James Campbell. LibDem incumbent Jamie Stone looks like the favourite here.
Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber - just the 4 here, with Fergus Ewing likely to hold onto his seat.
Moray - again, just the Big 4, and it's hard to see past Richard Lochhead holding onto the seat.
Orkney - along with the Big 4, Barry Johnson is an Independent candidate. This was former LibDem Leader Jim Wallace's Constituency, but he's standing down now, though Liam McArthur is likely to hold onto the seat for the Liberal Democrats.
Ross, Skye & Inverness West - the Big 4 are standing, as well as a Scottish Enterprise Party candidate. This is a fairly safe LibDem seat, and John Farquhar Munro is likely to get back in.
Shetland - just the usual suspects here, and LibDem Deputy Leader and Transport Minister Tavish Scott is pretty much certain to return to Holyrood.
Western Isles - again, just the Big 4, and if any seat in the Region is worth watching, it's this one. Labour's Alasdair Morrison is the incumbent, but he held it in 2003 with a majority of just 720, and the Party lost the seat at Westminster to the SNP, so Alasdair Allan must surely be the favourite.
The Regional List - as well as the Big 8, Scottish Voice are on the ballot paper, along with the BNP, the CPA, the Publicans, the SCP, the SEP, Socialist Labour and UKIP. In terms of winners and losers, Labour's likely loss of the Western Isles will be compensated by regaining the third List seat that they lost in 2003, so Peter Peacock will be re-elected, Rhoda Grant will make a return to the Parliament - she was third on the List in 2003 - and David Stewart, former MP for Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber will get in as well. The SNP will see Jim Mather and Rob Gibson re-elected, and the Conservatives will retain their two seats, allowing a return to Holyrood for Mary Scanlon, who stood down to contest the Moray By-Election, and re-election for Jamie McGrigor.
Lothians
Edinburgh Central - just the Big 4 here, and this seat is notable for the fact that all four candidates are women. Sarah Boyack might just hold on here, but she faces strong challenges from both Siobhan Mathers of the LibDems and Shirley-Anne Somerville of the SNP. Unless opponents to Labour rally round one or the other of those two, it looks like the vote will be split sufficiently to allow Boyack through the middle.
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - again, just the Big 4. Incumbent MSP Susan Deacon has stood down, and Labour's candidate to replace her is Norman Murray. The SNP challenger is Regional MSP Kenny MacAskill. The numbers say a Labour win, but be careful: the last time a sitting MSP stood down and his party's candidate faced a challenge from a sitting Regional MSP, the majority got slashed to less than 600 votes. This could be closer than some think, and if Labour have a bad night, it could produce a surprise.
Edinburgh North & Leith - still just the Big 4. Former Communities Minister Malcolm Chisholm is defending it, and should survive. The SNP look like the strongest challengers, but the LibDems will try to capitalise on their performance in the 2005 Westminster Election. Again, a split opposition will prove useful for Chisholm.
Edinburgh Pentlands - another seat with just the Big 4. It looks like former Tory Leader David McLetchie will stay on here.
Edinburgh South - just the big 4. Mike Pringle will probably consolidate his 158-vote majority, but it may well have more to do with a weakened Labour performance than a strong LibDem one.
Edinburgh West - finally, an Independent! John Gibb is up against the Big 4. The incmbent is LibDem Margaret Smith, and it looks like she'll be re-elected.
Linlithgow - just the Big 4 again: Mary Mulligan is the incumbent, SNP Shadow Education Minister Fiona Hyslop is the challenger, and it looks like a Hyslop win right now.
Livingston - the Big 4 plus a candidate from Action to Save St. John's Hospital. Bristow Muldoon is defending his seat, but he'll face a strong challenge from Angela Constance of the SNP, who looks like the winner. But the presence of a hospital campaigner could upset things: could he split the anti-Labour vote, or could he take more votes from Labour? Time will tell.
Midlothian - the Big 4 along with a candidate from the 'Had Enough Party'. It looks like Communities Minister Rhona Brankin will hold onto her seat.
The Regional List - has produced a ballot paper too large for the ordinary counting machines. We have the Big 8, we have the Had Enough Party, Scottish Voice, Socialist Labour and UKIP. There's the BNP, the CPA and the SCP. The Publican Party have a candidate, and Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers have two. The SEP have a candidate, as do Adam Lyal's Witchery Tour Party. Margo MacDonald is seeking re-election, while the other Independents are Alex Scott, John Wilson and Duncan Thorp. Assuming that Kenny MacAskill doesn't pull off the win in Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, he'll be on the List along with Ian McKee and Stefan Tymkewycz. My numbers suggest that Shirley-Anne Somerville will get in too, but she's the seventh person to do so and my numbers don't project a win for Margo MacDonald, who surely will be re-elected. So, sadly for Shirley-Anne and the SNP, the Party will have only three Regional Members. Labour will gain one in Lord Foulkes, the Tories' Gavin Brown will be elected, and the Greens will get Robin Harper re-elected.
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - again, just the Big 4. Incumbent MSP Susan Deacon has stood down, and Labour's candidate to replace her is Norman Murray. The SNP challenger is Regional MSP Kenny MacAskill. The numbers say a Labour win, but be careful: the last time a sitting MSP stood down and his party's candidate faced a challenge from a sitting Regional MSP, the majority got slashed to less than 600 votes. This could be closer than some think, and if Labour have a bad night, it could produce a surprise.
Edinburgh North & Leith - still just the Big 4. Former Communities Minister Malcolm Chisholm is defending it, and should survive. The SNP look like the strongest challengers, but the LibDems will try to capitalise on their performance in the 2005 Westminster Election. Again, a split opposition will prove useful for Chisholm.
Edinburgh Pentlands - another seat with just the Big 4. It looks like former Tory Leader David McLetchie will stay on here.
Edinburgh South - just the big 4. Mike Pringle will probably consolidate his 158-vote majority, but it may well have more to do with a weakened Labour performance than a strong LibDem one.
Edinburgh West - finally, an Independent! John Gibb is up against the Big 4. The incmbent is LibDem Margaret Smith, and it looks like she'll be re-elected.
Linlithgow - just the Big 4 again: Mary Mulligan is the incumbent, SNP Shadow Education Minister Fiona Hyslop is the challenger, and it looks like a Hyslop win right now.
Livingston - the Big 4 plus a candidate from Action to Save St. John's Hospital. Bristow Muldoon is defending his seat, but he'll face a strong challenge from Angela Constance of the SNP, who looks like the winner. But the presence of a hospital campaigner could upset things: could he split the anti-Labour vote, or could he take more votes from Labour? Time will tell.
Midlothian - the Big 4 along with a candidate from the 'Had Enough Party'. It looks like Communities Minister Rhona Brankin will hold onto her seat.
The Regional List - has produced a ballot paper too large for the ordinary counting machines. We have the Big 8, we have the Had Enough Party, Scottish Voice, Socialist Labour and UKIP. There's the BNP, the CPA and the SCP. The Publican Party have a candidate, and Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers have two. The SEP have a candidate, as do Adam Lyal's Witchery Tour Party. Margo MacDonald is seeking re-election, while the other Independents are Alex Scott, John Wilson and Duncan Thorp. Assuming that Kenny MacAskill doesn't pull off the win in Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, he'll be on the List along with Ian McKee and Stefan Tymkewycz. My numbers suggest that Shirley-Anne Somerville will get in too, but she's the seventh person to do so and my numbers don't project a win for Margo MacDonald, who surely will be re-elected. So, sadly for Shirley-Anne and the SNP, the Party will have only three Regional Members. Labour will gain one in Lord Foulkes, the Tories' Gavin Brown will be elected, and the Greens will get Robin Harper re-elected.
Mid Scotland & Fife
Central Fife - no major surprises here: it's just the Big 4. The SNP's Tricia Marwick looks like the favourite for this seat, at the expense of Labour incumbent Christine May. This used to be former First Minister Henry McLeish's seat, but those days are long gone.
Dunfermline East - just the Big 4 here, and Helen Eadie's position looks fairly safe.
Dunfermline West - along with the Big 4, Susan Archibald of Scottish Voice has made an appearance. Despite the LibDem win in the Dunfermline & West Fife By-Election, this looks like a pretty solid Labour seat, though second place last time around went to an Independent who isn't trying again. If Scott Barrie can win back just a few of that Independent's 4,584 votes, he should be safe.
Kirkcaldy - just the Big 4 here, and Labour's Marilyn Livingstone looks like holding on, despite a strong challenge from the SNP's Christopher Harvie. For Labour to lose this seat would be a huge embarrassment to Gordon Brown, who is, after all, the MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.
North East Fife - the Big 4 plus Independent Tony Campbell. LibDem incumbent Iain Smith looks like keeping his seat.
North Tayside - just the Big 4 again. Former SNP Leader John Swinney looks like the winner. The main challenger is Tory Deputy Leader Murdo Fraser.
Ochil - this seat was Presiding Officer George Reid's, but he's standing down and his last act as PO will be to oversee the swearing in of the MSPs and the election of his successor. This was a Lab/SNP marginal in 1999, and Reid won it for the SNP in 2003, helped in no small part by the then MSP Richard Simpson's outburst that striking firefighters were 'fascist bastards'. The numbers have Keith Brown holding onto this for the SNP, but is that based on support for his Party or his predecessor? We shall see.
Perth - the Big 4 plus the Free Scotland Party. Former SNP Deputy Leader Roseanna Cunningham only just held onto this seat in 2003, but looks like securing her position again this time round.
Stirling - the Big 4 plus the Peace Party. Sylvia Jackson looks like keeping the seat for Labour.
The Regional List - the Big 8, plus Scottish Voice, UKIP, Socialist Labour, the BNP, CPA and SCP. Also the Free Scotland Party and the Publican Party. Right now, the SNP look like getting three seats (incumbent Bruce Crawford along with Christopher Harvie and Roderick Campbell), the Tories two (Fraser and Liz Smith, so Ted Brocklebank is in trouble), Labour one (John Park) and the LibDems one (Alex Cole-Hamilton, who came above sitting MSP Andrew Arbuckle in the rankings).
Dunfermline East - just the Big 4 here, and Helen Eadie's position looks fairly safe.
Dunfermline West - along with the Big 4, Susan Archibald of Scottish Voice has made an appearance. Despite the LibDem win in the Dunfermline & West Fife By-Election, this looks like a pretty solid Labour seat, though second place last time around went to an Independent who isn't trying again. If Scott Barrie can win back just a few of that Independent's 4,584 votes, he should be safe.
Kirkcaldy - just the Big 4 here, and Labour's Marilyn Livingstone looks like holding on, despite a strong challenge from the SNP's Christopher Harvie. For Labour to lose this seat would be a huge embarrassment to Gordon Brown, who is, after all, the MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.
North East Fife - the Big 4 plus Independent Tony Campbell. LibDem incumbent Iain Smith looks like keeping his seat.
North Tayside - just the Big 4 again. Former SNP Leader John Swinney looks like the winner. The main challenger is Tory Deputy Leader Murdo Fraser.
Ochil - this seat was Presiding Officer George Reid's, but he's standing down and his last act as PO will be to oversee the swearing in of the MSPs and the election of his successor. This was a Lab/SNP marginal in 1999, and Reid won it for the SNP in 2003, helped in no small part by the then MSP Richard Simpson's outburst that striking firefighters were 'fascist bastards'. The numbers have Keith Brown holding onto this for the SNP, but is that based on support for his Party or his predecessor? We shall see.
Perth - the Big 4 plus the Free Scotland Party. Former SNP Deputy Leader Roseanna Cunningham only just held onto this seat in 2003, but looks like securing her position again this time round.
Stirling - the Big 4 plus the Peace Party. Sylvia Jackson looks like keeping the seat for Labour.
The Regional List - the Big 8, plus Scottish Voice, UKIP, Socialist Labour, the BNP, CPA and SCP. Also the Free Scotland Party and the Publican Party. Right now, the SNP look like getting three seats (incumbent Bruce Crawford along with Christopher Harvie and Roderick Campbell), the Tories two (Fraser and Liz Smith, so Ted Brocklebank is in trouble), Labour one (John Park) and the LibDems one (Alex Cole-Hamilton, who came above sitting MSP Andrew Arbuckle in the rankings).
North East Scotland
Aberdeen Central - just the Big 4 here. The current numbers have us saying goodbye to Lewis Macdonald, who's likely to be defeated by the SNP's Karen Shirron.
Aberdeen North - again, just the Big 4. Elaine Thomson is trying to win back the seat she lost in 2003, but Brian Adam is likely to hold onto it for the SNP.
Aberdeen South - while I don't wish to play on stereotypes, it's telling that only the four main parties have been willing to stump up the £500 deposit in the three city seats. Anyway, I now have to brace myself for a wave of angry e-mails, but in the meantime let me tell you that the incumbent MSP is LibDem Leader and Deputy First Minister Nicol Stephen. He's going to hold on.
Angus - just the Big 4 here. Andrew Welsh is likely to keep his seat for the SNP.
Banff & Buchan - again, I can't see much happening: just the Big 4 are standing and Stewart Stevenson is pretty safe.
Dundee East - the usual suspects again. Shona Robison won this seat by a whisker in 2003, and she looks like consolidating her hold this time around. Her challenger is Iain Luke, former MP for the Constituency who was defeated by Robison's husband, Stewart Hosie, in 2005.
Dundee West - just the Big 4 again, and with Kate Maclean standing down, Labour's candidate is Jill Shimi. However, the winner of this seat looks likely to be the SNP's Joe Fitzpatrick.
Gordon - the Big 4, along with a candidate from the Scottish Enterprise Party and two independents: Donald Marr and Dave Mathers. The numbers say a Nora Radcliffe win, but the SNP Candidate is one Mr. A. Salmond, who happens to be SNP Leader, and is on the Regional part of every ballot paper as 'Alex Salmond for First Minister'. Some have accused the SNP of personality, presidential-style politics, but if his first name didn't begin with the first letter of the alphabet, I don't think the SNP would be doing this. Basically, I'm ignoring my numbers and going with my gut: Salmond will be MSP for Gordon on May 4.
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - the Big 4 here again. It's safe Mike Rumbles territory.
The Regional List - aside from the Big 8, the BNP, CPA, SCP, Socialist Labour and UKIP are all having ago, along with NHSFirst and the SEP. It looks like Labour will end up with 3 MSPs (The sitting Richard Baker and Marlyn Glen, along with Kevin Hutchens), 2 Tories (incumbents Alex Johnstone and Nanette Milne, meaning that fellow Tory Ian Davidson is in jeopardy) and depending on the outcome in Gordon, 1-2 SNP MSPs (Salmond if he needs it, Maureen Watt either way) and 0-1 LibDems (Alison MacInnes if Nora Radcliffe loses). This means that one Party Leader will not be in Holyrood: Green Co-Convener Shiona Baird.
Aberdeen North - again, just the Big 4. Elaine Thomson is trying to win back the seat she lost in 2003, but Brian Adam is likely to hold onto it for the SNP.
Aberdeen South - while I don't wish to play on stereotypes, it's telling that only the four main parties have been willing to stump up the £500 deposit in the three city seats. Anyway, I now have to brace myself for a wave of angry e-mails, but in the meantime let me tell you that the incumbent MSP is LibDem Leader and Deputy First Minister Nicol Stephen. He's going to hold on.
Angus - just the Big 4 here. Andrew Welsh is likely to keep his seat for the SNP.
Banff & Buchan - again, I can't see much happening: just the Big 4 are standing and Stewart Stevenson is pretty safe.
Dundee East - the usual suspects again. Shona Robison won this seat by a whisker in 2003, and she looks like consolidating her hold this time around. Her challenger is Iain Luke, former MP for the Constituency who was defeated by Robison's husband, Stewart Hosie, in 2005.
Dundee West - just the Big 4 again, and with Kate Maclean standing down, Labour's candidate is Jill Shimi. However, the winner of this seat looks likely to be the SNP's Joe Fitzpatrick.
Gordon - the Big 4, along with a candidate from the Scottish Enterprise Party and two independents: Donald Marr and Dave Mathers. The numbers say a Nora Radcliffe win, but the SNP Candidate is one Mr. A. Salmond, who happens to be SNP Leader, and is on the Regional part of every ballot paper as 'Alex Salmond for First Minister'. Some have accused the SNP of personality, presidential-style politics, but if his first name didn't begin with the first letter of the alphabet, I don't think the SNP would be doing this. Basically, I'm ignoring my numbers and going with my gut: Salmond will be MSP for Gordon on May 4.
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - the Big 4 here again. It's safe Mike Rumbles territory.
The Regional List - aside from the Big 8, the BNP, CPA, SCP, Socialist Labour and UKIP are all having ago, along with NHSFirst and the SEP. It looks like Labour will end up with 3 MSPs (The sitting Richard Baker and Marlyn Glen, along with Kevin Hutchens), 2 Tories (incumbents Alex Johnstone and Nanette Milne, meaning that fellow Tory Ian Davidson is in jeopardy) and depending on the outcome in Gordon, 1-2 SNP MSPs (Salmond if he needs it, Maureen Watt either way) and 0-1 LibDems (Alison MacInnes if Nora Radcliffe loses). This means that one Party Leader will not be in Holyrood: Green Co-Convener Shiona Baird.
South of Scotland
Ayr - Just the Big 4 here, and John Scott looks like holding the seat for the Tories.
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley - the Big 4 plus a candidate from the Equal Parenting Alliance and Independent Candidate Hugh Hill. This looks like a win for Justice Minister Cathy Jamieson.
Clydesdale - the Big 4 again here. It's looking like a close-run thing between Labour incumbent Karen Gillon and SNP challenger Aileen Campbell. The national figures currently have Gillon holding on, but only just.
Cunninghame South - nothing of note here, just the usual suspects challenging and it's a fairly safe Labour seat. Irene Oldfather will probably be back in on May 4.
Dumfries - just the Big 4. This is one of the few seats where the Tories are the main challengers, and their candidate is Murray Tosh. Despite the chagrin shown by one reader of this blog, I still see Elaine Murray as hanging on by the skin of her teeth, unless the Labour campaign gets any worse, or the Tories find some national momentum.
East Lothian - just the usual four again. John Home Robertson is standing down and Labour's proposed replacement, former Edinburgh Pentlands MSP Iain Gray, is the likely winner.
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale - the Big 4 plus the delightfully named Sandy Preposterous Richardson. The current figures see the SNP's Alasdair Morgan winning the seat back from Conservative Alex Fergusson, who defeated Morgan in 2003.
Roxburgh & Berwickshire - the Big 4 plus musician Jesse Rae. It looks like a fairly safe hold for LibDem Euan Robson.
Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale - the Big 4 here. Jeremy Purvis is the incumbent, he has a wafer-thin majority over SNP Candidate (and Regional MSP before dissolution) Christine Grahame. Derek Brownlee, the Tory candidate has been a Regional MSP at Holyrood since Mundell's resignation in 2005, but I can't see past a Grahame victory at this stage.
The Regional List - the Big 8 are all here, along with the BNP, the Christian People's Alliance and the Scottish Christian Party, Scottish Voice, Socialist Labour, and UKIP. Paddy Scott Hogg is standing as an Independent. It's looking like 4 SNP Members: a return for 2004 Leadership Contender Mike Russell, re-election for Adam Ingram, and election for Aileen Campbell and Aileen Orr. They'll be joined by Tories Derek Brownlee and John Lamont (so Murray Tosh is in trouble), and LibDem Jim Hume.
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley - the Big 4 plus a candidate from the Equal Parenting Alliance and Independent Candidate Hugh Hill. This looks like a win for Justice Minister Cathy Jamieson.
Clydesdale - the Big 4 again here. It's looking like a close-run thing between Labour incumbent Karen Gillon and SNP challenger Aileen Campbell. The national figures currently have Gillon holding on, but only just.
Cunninghame South - nothing of note here, just the usual suspects challenging and it's a fairly safe Labour seat. Irene Oldfather will probably be back in on May 4.
Dumfries - just the Big 4. This is one of the few seats where the Tories are the main challengers, and their candidate is Murray Tosh. Despite the chagrin shown by one reader of this blog, I still see Elaine Murray as hanging on by the skin of her teeth, unless the Labour campaign gets any worse, or the Tories find some national momentum.
East Lothian - just the usual four again. John Home Robertson is standing down and Labour's proposed replacement, former Edinburgh Pentlands MSP Iain Gray, is the likely winner.
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale - the Big 4 plus the delightfully named Sandy Preposterous Richardson. The current figures see the SNP's Alasdair Morgan winning the seat back from Conservative Alex Fergusson, who defeated Morgan in 2003.
Roxburgh & Berwickshire - the Big 4 plus musician Jesse Rae. It looks like a fairly safe hold for LibDem Euan Robson.
Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale - the Big 4 here. Jeremy Purvis is the incumbent, he has a wafer-thin majority over SNP Candidate (and Regional MSP before dissolution) Christine Grahame. Derek Brownlee, the Tory candidate has been a Regional MSP at Holyrood since Mundell's resignation in 2005, but I can't see past a Grahame victory at this stage.
The Regional List - the Big 8 are all here, along with the BNP, the Christian People's Alliance and the Scottish Christian Party, Scottish Voice, Socialist Labour, and UKIP. Paddy Scott Hogg is standing as an Independent. It's looking like 4 SNP Members: a return for 2004 Leadership Contender Mike Russell, re-election for Adam Ingram, and election for Aileen Campbell and Aileen Orr. They'll be joined by Tories Derek Brownlee and John Lamont (so Murray Tosh is in trouble), and LibDem Jim Hume.
West of Scotland
Clydebank & Milngavie - only the Big 4 are standing here. On current standings, Des McNulty will get back into Holyrood.
Cunninghame North - As well as the Big 4, Campbell Martin is standing. Martin was elected as an SNP MSP last time, but was expelled from the Party in 2004. The numbers would suggest that Kenneth Gibson, the SNP's candidate and former Glasgow MSP, will win, but Martin's intervention could jeopardise that. However, the SSP aren't fielding a Constituency candidate, so that might be a more logical source for Martin's votes.
Dumbarton - There has been no challenge to Jackie Baillie from disgruntled ex-Labour Councillors. There is, however, a candidate from the Scottish Jacobite Party. Anyway, Jackie Baillie should be fairly safe here on current numbers.
Eastwood - The Big 4 plus Independent Councillor Frank McGee. Ken McIntosh should be returned, but there are two important things to look out for: firstly, this seat, once the Tories' safest in Scotland, will be a good bellweather of Tory fortunes. If they do well here, they have cause for optimism, but if they weaken the Party is doomed. Secondly, the SNP candidate is Stewart Maxwell, who was a Regional MSP before Dissolution. This could give him an increased profile, and more votes. Could he be a viable challenger for the seat (or its successor) in 2011?
Greenock & Inverclyde - Just the big 4 here. Labour's Duncan McNeill to survive a chalenge from Environment Minister Ross Finnie.
Paisley North - Along with the Big 4, the SSP are fielding a candidate here in Iain Hogg. Hogg is a former Labour Councillor who left the Party in disgust, while Plott is a former SSP Candidate. Wendy Alexander's position is weak, and recent polls have her losing her seat, but the SSP presence could end up saving her.
Paisley South - Just the Big 4. Hugh Henry is in real trouble here, and we could well see a return to Holyrood for Fiona McLeod, a Regional MSP in the 1999-2003 Parliament.
Strathkelvin & Bearsden - The Big 4, along with incumbent Independent Jean Turner, and a Scottish Christian Party candidate. At one point, I would have said that this seat will go to Labour's David Whitton, but Labour's current weakness in the polls makes that pretty doubtful. At present, Turner looks like winning re-election.
West Renfrewshire - Just the Big 4. This promises to be an interesting contest. Deputy Presiding Officer is under threat, primarily from Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003 and based on current projections would take the seat. However, the Tory challenger is Party Leader Annabel Goldie. Her predecessor managed to take Edinburgh Pentlands in 2003, and the result here will be a mark of her personal standing and performance. If she doesn't at least increase her vote, she's in trouble.
The Regional Vote - all the Parties with representation in Holyrood (the Big 8) are fielding candidates. They're joined on the Ballot Paper by Scottish Voice, the BNP, the Christian People's Alliance, who will be fighting with the Scottish Christian Party for the same vote, the Save our NHS Group, the Jacobites (well, one Jacobite), the Scottish Unionist Party, the Socialist Equality Party, the Socialist Labour Party (that's four Socialist Parties - how many does the West need?!) and UKIPScotland. On current figures, we're looking at two Tories (Goldie and Jackson Carlaw), two LibDems (Finnie and Gordon Macdonald), and depending on the outcome of Paisley North, 1-2 Labour MSPs (Stuark Clark with Marie Rooney) and 1-2 SNP MSPs (Maxwell and former Central Scotland MSP Gil Paterson).
Cunninghame North - As well as the Big 4, Campbell Martin is standing. Martin was elected as an SNP MSP last time, but was expelled from the Party in 2004. The numbers would suggest that Kenneth Gibson, the SNP's candidate and former Glasgow MSP, will win, but Martin's intervention could jeopardise that. However, the SSP aren't fielding a Constituency candidate, so that might be a more logical source for Martin's votes.
Dumbarton - There has been no challenge to Jackie Baillie from disgruntled ex-Labour Councillors. There is, however, a candidate from the Scottish Jacobite Party. Anyway, Jackie Baillie should be fairly safe here on current numbers.
Eastwood - The Big 4 plus Independent Councillor Frank McGee. Ken McIntosh should be returned, but there are two important things to look out for: firstly, this seat, once the Tories' safest in Scotland, will be a good bellweather of Tory fortunes. If they do well here, they have cause for optimism, but if they weaken the Party is doomed. Secondly, the SNP candidate is Stewart Maxwell, who was a Regional MSP before Dissolution. This could give him an increased profile, and more votes. Could he be a viable challenger for the seat (or its successor) in 2011?
Greenock & Inverclyde - Just the big 4 here. Labour's Duncan McNeill to survive a chalenge from Environment Minister Ross Finnie.
Paisley North - Along with the Big 4, the SSP are fielding a candidate here in Iain Hogg. Hogg is a former Labour Councillor who left the Party in disgust, while Plott is a former SSP Candidate. Wendy Alexander's position is weak, and recent polls have her losing her seat, but the SSP presence could end up saving her.
Paisley South - Just the Big 4. Hugh Henry is in real trouble here, and we could well see a return to Holyrood for Fiona McLeod, a Regional MSP in the 1999-2003 Parliament.
Strathkelvin & Bearsden - The Big 4, along with incumbent Independent Jean Turner, and a Scottish Christian Party candidate. At one point, I would have said that this seat will go to Labour's David Whitton, but Labour's current weakness in the polls makes that pretty doubtful. At present, Turner looks like winning re-election.
West Renfrewshire - Just the Big 4. This promises to be an interesting contest. Deputy Presiding Officer is under threat, primarily from Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003 and based on current projections would take the seat. However, the Tory challenger is Party Leader Annabel Goldie. Her predecessor managed to take Edinburgh Pentlands in 2003, and the result here will be a mark of her personal standing and performance. If she doesn't at least increase her vote, she's in trouble.
The Regional Vote - all the Parties with representation in Holyrood (the Big 8) are fielding candidates. They're joined on the Ballot Paper by Scottish Voice, the BNP, the Christian People's Alliance, who will be fighting with the Scottish Christian Party for the same vote, the Save our NHS Group, the Jacobites (well, one Jacobite), the Scottish Unionist Party, the Socialist Equality Party, the Socialist Labour Party (that's four Socialist Parties - how many does the West need?!) and UKIPScotland. On current figures, we're looking at two Tories (Goldie and Jackson Carlaw), two LibDems (Finnie and Gordon Macdonald), and depending on the outcome of Paisley North, 1-2 Labour MSPs (Stuark Clark with Marie Rooney) and 1-2 SNP MSPs (Maxwell and former Central Scotland MSP Gil Paterson).
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Poll of Polls Week Ending 8 April
The same caveats apply, especially in a week where one poll forecast a Labour lead while another forecast a double-digit SNP lead over Labour. Luckily, these pretty much balance out, falling into line with the SNP 5%(ish) average lead. Here are my results based on this week's publications:
SNP 50 (27 Constituencies, 23 Regional)
Labour 43 (31 + 12)
LibDem 18 (12 + 6)
Conservative 15 (2 + 13)
Green 2 (0 + 2)
Independent 1 (1 + 0)
Again, it's still hard to calculate the impact of the SSCUP and Solidarity, as well as local candidacies. Also, it looks like the SNP are in with a shout of taking Falkirk West, which I've normally allocated to Labour. But taking my figures:
There would be 85 men and 44 women in the new Parliament.
There would be 39 first-time MSPs (including two ex-MPs: George Foulkes and David Stewart), and 8 former MSPs returning to Holyrood, resulting in 47 changes to the list of Members.
Health Minister Andy Kerr would lose his seat to Linda Fabiani.
Nicola Sturgeon would gain Glasgow Govan.
Alex Salmond would be elected as a Regional MSP for North East Scotland, a status that Green Co-Convener Shiona Baird would lose.
Both Deputy Presiding Officers - Trish Godman and Murray Tosh - would lose their seats. Godman would lose her seat to Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003. However, the poll in today's Mail on Sunday would see Tosh win Dumfries, so he's still in play.
Wendy Alexander would lose her seat to Andy Doig, and Education Minister Hugh Henry would lose his seat to Fiona McLeod.
SNP 50 (27 Constituencies, 23 Regional)
Labour 43 (31 + 12)
LibDem 18 (12 + 6)
Conservative 15 (2 + 13)
Green 2 (0 + 2)
Independent 1 (1 + 0)
Again, it's still hard to calculate the impact of the SSCUP and Solidarity, as well as local candidacies. Also, it looks like the SNP are in with a shout of taking Falkirk West, which I've normally allocated to Labour. But taking my figures:
There would be 85 men and 44 women in the new Parliament.
There would be 39 first-time MSPs (including two ex-MPs: George Foulkes and David Stewart), and 8 former MSPs returning to Holyrood, resulting in 47 changes to the list of Members.
Health Minister Andy Kerr would lose his seat to Linda Fabiani.
Nicola Sturgeon would gain Glasgow Govan.
Alex Salmond would be elected as a Regional MSP for North East Scotland, a status that Green Co-Convener Shiona Baird would lose.
Both Deputy Presiding Officers - Trish Godman and Murray Tosh - would lose their seats. Godman would lose her seat to Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003. However, the poll in today's Mail on Sunday would see Tosh win Dumfries, so he's still in play.
Wendy Alexander would lose her seat to Andy Doig, and Education Minister Hugh Henry would lose his seat to Fiona McLeod.
Monday, April 02, 2007
Poll of Polls Week Ending 1 April
I've posted this on the second for the avoidance of doubt! Anyway, taking a rough average of the polls last week, my own calculations yield the following results:
SNP 49 (28 Constituencies, 21 Regional)
Labour 41 (34 + 7)
LibDem 17 (9 + 8)
Conservative 14 (2 + 12)
Greens 7 (all regional)
SSP 1 (regional)
Obviously, it's hard at this stage to examine the impact of Solidarity and the SSCUP, as well as Independents (one of whom is a reader) so I reckon that the final tally might look slightly different. Chances are that Margo MacDonald will get in, so it may well be SNP 48 (28 + 20) rather than 49. I've also conjectured the Falkirk West figure and I'm assuming that it will revert to character for the time being.
Anyway, assuming that my figures are accurate:
There would be 86-88 men (I still have a few holes in my candidate lists) and 41-43 women in the new Parliament.
There would be 38 first-time MSPs (including one former MP, David Stewart), and 8 former MSPs returning to Holyrood, resulting in 46 changes to the list of Members.
Health Minister Andy Kerr would lose his seat to Linda Fabiani.
Nicola Sturgeon would gain Glasgow Govan.
Alex Salmond would gain Gordon.
Shiona Baird (Co-Convener of the Greens) would lose her seat.
Both Deputy Presiding Officers - Trish Godman and Murray Tosh - would lose their seats. Godman would lose her seat to Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003.
Wendy Alexander would lose her seat to Andy Doig, and Education Minister Hugh Henry would lose his seat to Fiona McLeod.
SNP 49 (28 Constituencies, 21 Regional)
Labour 41 (34 + 7)
LibDem 17 (9 + 8)
Conservative 14 (2 + 12)
Greens 7 (all regional)
SSP 1 (regional)
Obviously, it's hard at this stage to examine the impact of Solidarity and the SSCUP, as well as Independents (one of whom is a reader) so I reckon that the final tally might look slightly different. Chances are that Margo MacDonald will get in, so it may well be SNP 48 (28 + 20) rather than 49. I've also conjectured the Falkirk West figure and I'm assuming that it will revert to character for the time being.
Anyway, assuming that my figures are accurate:
There would be 86-88 men (I still have a few holes in my candidate lists) and 41-43 women in the new Parliament.
There would be 38 first-time MSPs (including one former MP, David Stewart), and 8 former MSPs returning to Holyrood, resulting in 46 changes to the list of Members.
Health Minister Andy Kerr would lose his seat to Linda Fabiani.
Nicola Sturgeon would gain Glasgow Govan.
Alex Salmond would gain Gordon.
Shiona Baird (Co-Convener of the Greens) would lose her seat.
Both Deputy Presiding Officers - Trish Godman and Murray Tosh - would lose their seats. Godman would lose her seat to Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003.
Wendy Alexander would lose her seat to Andy Doig, and Education Minister Hugh Henry would lose his seat to Fiona McLeod.
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