I've posted this on the second for the avoidance of doubt! Anyway, taking a rough average of the polls last week, my own calculations yield the following results:
SNP 49 (28 Constituencies, 21 Regional)
Labour 41 (34 + 7)
LibDem 17 (9 + 8)
Conservative 14 (2 + 12)
Greens 7 (all regional)
SSP 1 (regional)
Obviously, it's hard at this stage to examine the impact of Solidarity and the SSCUP, as well as Independents (one of whom is a reader) so I reckon that the final tally might look slightly different. Chances are that Margo MacDonald will get in, so it may well be SNP 48 (28 + 20) rather than 49. I've also conjectured the Falkirk West figure and I'm assuming that it will revert to character for the time being.
Anyway, assuming that my figures are accurate:
There would be 86-88 men (I still have a few holes in my candidate lists) and 41-43 women in the new Parliament.
There would be 38 first-time MSPs (including one former MP, David Stewart), and 8 former MSPs returning to Holyrood, resulting in 46 changes to the list of Members.
Health Minister Andy Kerr would lose his seat to Linda Fabiani.
Nicola Sturgeon would gain Glasgow Govan.
Alex Salmond would gain Gordon.
Shiona Baird (Co-Convener of the Greens) would lose her seat.
Both Deputy Presiding Officers - Trish Godman and Murray Tosh - would lose their seats. Godman would lose her seat to Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003.
Wendy Alexander would lose her seat to Andy Doig, and Education Minister Hugh Henry would lose his seat to Fiona McLeod.
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2 comments:
Nonsense, Murray Tosh will win Dumfries. Labour is in meltdown locally and the Tories have a popular MP in part of the constituency.
Well, my results are based on Scotland-wide opinion polls, and on that basis, the Tories appear to be in a relatively weak position. In areas like Dumfries, local factors can kick in and the picture may well be different, especially when you're starting from a close 2nd place.
It remains to be seen what will actually happen. I'm not convinced that the Tories in Scotland are capitalising on Labour's current weakness as well as they have done in the past - David McLetchie probably did more than anyone to bring Henry McLeish down - but if a gain be made by the Tories, Murray Tosh is the most likely to make it, followed in second place by Bob Dalrymple in Stirling.
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