The same caveats apply, especially in a week where one poll forecast a Labour lead while another forecast a double-digit SNP lead over Labour. Luckily, these pretty much balance out, falling into line with the SNP 5%(ish) average lead. Here are my results based on this week's publications:
SNP 50 (27 Constituencies, 23 Regional)
Labour 43 (31 + 12)
LibDem 18 (12 + 6)
Conservative 15 (2 + 13)
Green 2 (0 + 2)
Independent 1 (1 + 0)
Again, it's still hard to calculate the impact of the SSCUP and Solidarity, as well as local candidacies. Also, it looks like the SNP are in with a shout of taking Falkirk West, which I've normally allocated to Labour. But taking my figures:
There would be 85 men and 44 women in the new Parliament.
There would be 39 first-time MSPs (including two ex-MPs: George Foulkes and David Stewart), and 8 former MSPs returning to Holyrood, resulting in 47 changes to the list of Members.
Health Minister Andy Kerr would lose his seat to Linda Fabiani.
Nicola Sturgeon would gain Glasgow Govan.
Alex Salmond would be elected as a Regional MSP for North East Scotland, a status that Green Co-Convener Shiona Baird would lose.
Both Deputy Presiding Officers - Trish Godman and Murray Tosh - would lose their seats. Godman would lose her seat to Bill Wilson, who challenged John Swinney for the SNP Leadership in 2003. However, the poll in today's Mail on Sunday would see Tosh win Dumfries, so he's still in play.
Wendy Alexander would lose her seat to Andy Doig, and Education Minister Hugh Henry would lose his seat to Fiona McLeod.
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5 comments:
What's your take of galoway and Upper Nithsdale Will?
Gus @ http://1820.org.uk
Well, on my numbers, I have it going back to the SNP.
The full set of results for the South based on my projections:
SNP gain Galloway & Upper Nithsdale from the Tories, and TEL from the LibDems. Tories hold Ayr. LibDems hold Roxburgh & Berwickshire. Labour hold their constituencies.
On the Regional Vote, four SNP MSPs (Mike Russell, Adam Ingram, Aileen Campbell and Aileen Orr), two Conservatives (Derek Brownlee and John Lamont) and one LibDem (Jim Hume).
Will, if you're right, the gender balance in the new parliament would be truly depressing. I remember feeling so proud of the number of women we elected in 1999 - at that time the 3rd highest number of any legislature in the world. Now we're going backwards. I guess the Labour party have quietly dropped their 50/50 commitment; to be fair to them they did lead the way in this policy back in '99, but no more. some consolation might be our first woman FM, if SNP win, but Alex doesn't!..........
Without the 50/50 arrangement, Labour increased its % of women MSPs in 2003 - more women than all the others put together. Looking at the figures below makes it clear that Labour doing badly is likely to be bad news for women's representation.
Party / women / men / 2003 / 1999
Labour / 28 / 22 / 56% / 50%
SNP / 9 / 18 / 33.3% / 42.9%
Cons / 4 / 14 / 22.2% / 16.7%
Lib Dems / 2 / 15 / 11.8% / 11.8%
Greens / 2 / 5 / 28.6% / 0%
SSP / 4 / 2 / 66.7% / 0%
SSCU / 0 / 1 / 0% / (n/a)
Indep / 2 / 1 / 66.7% / 0%
Totals / 51 / 78 / 39.5% / 37.2%
Well, just to give a couple of breakdowns, it looks like out of the 44 women to be elected, 19 will be Labour, 17 SNP, five will be Conservative, two will be Liberal Democrat, and one will be Jean Turner. If Margo MacDonald gets in, as is likely, even though my numbers aren't favourable to her, she will most likely do so at the expense of another woman.
In terms of the Regions:
Central: 7 women (down 1)
Glasgow: 6 women (down 2)
Highlands: 2 women (no change from dissolution, but down one on 2003)
Lothians: 6 women (down 1)
Mid/Fife: 6 women (no change)
North East: 6 women (down 1)
South: 7 women (up 1)
West: 5 women (down 1)
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