Airdrie & Shotts - the Big 4 here, along with Mev Brown of NHSFirst, who has decamped to Central Scotland after originally planning to stand in the Lothians. Despite that, Labour incumbent Karen Whitefield looks the likely winner.
Coatbridge & Chryston - the Big 4, plus with Independent campaigner (and blogger) Julie McAnulty, and Gaille McCann, a former Glasgow Labour Councillor who has rather uncharitably decided to put her name forward against Julie McAnulty, despite the fact that McCann is the NHSFirst candidate, and Julie is standing on a pro-NHS, anti-PFI ticket (have I got that right, Julie?). I've had my doubts about NHSFirst in the past, and this only serves to compound them. In any case, the presence of both of these candidates makes this race far more interesting than it would otherwise have been as the numbers have this as a solid Labour win for incumbent Elaine Smith.
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth - just the Big 4, and Labour incumbent Cathie Craigie is defending a majority of just 520 against the SNP. In short, SNP candidate Jamie Hepburn has to do something incredibly stupid if he's not to get elected.
East Kilbride - just the Big 4 again. A brief shout-out goes to Dave Clark, LibDem candidate and my successor as Convener of the Edinburgh University Debates Union. The shout out over with, he hasn't got that much of a chance: this is between Health Minister Andy Kerr and the SNP's Linda Fabiani. At the moment, Fabiani looks like the winner, and with Kerr's name being mentioned as a possible successor to Jack McConnell, this will be a major scalp for the SNP.
Falkirk East - just the Big 4 here, and Labour incumbent Cathy Peattie looks like the winner. However, the SNP candidate is Annabelle Ewing, the former MP for Perth. A possible shock.
Falkirk West - just the Big 4 in a seat that defies calculation. This was Dennis Canavan's seat, but he's stepping down. Looking at Canavan-free ballot papers post 1999, Labour won the By-Election that Canavan forced by stepping down early from Westminster, and MP Eric Joyce was re-elected in 2001. Joyce was re-elected as MP for Falkirk (the successor seat) in 2005, and Labour came top in Falkirk West in the Regional Vote in 2003, so at first glance, this is appears to be a win for Dennis Goldie, the outspoken and controversial Labour candidate. However, that lead on the 2003 Regional Vote could be wiped out the SNP as this time according to current polls, especially as the candidate, Michael Matheson, has been a Regional MSP for eight years. I wasn't sure at first, but now I reckon that Matheson might just do it, especially as he has the backing of one of Canavan's key local supporters.
Hamilton North & Bellshill - the Big 4, plus an NHSFirst candidate and independent Gordon Weir. Labour incumbent Michael McMahon looks like the winner here.
Hamilton South - the Big 4 along with Independent South Lanarkshire Councillor Michael McGlynn. This has been Finance Minister Tom McCabe's seat since 1999, and it looks like it will be again after 2007.
Kilmarnock & Loudoun - just the Big 4 here, and Labour's Margaret Jamieson has a small majority, which should be overturned easily by the SNP's Willie Coffey.
Motherwell & Wishaw - in addition to the Big 4, we have an SCP candidate, a candidate from the Anti-Trident Party, and John Swinburne, the SSCUP Leader. However, seeing as the Labour candidate and incumbent is a Mr. J. McConnell, the Labour Party would probably end up with something like 10 seats nationally if the First Minister were to lose his seat.
The Regional List - aside from the Big 8, NHSFirst are standing here, with founder Mev Brown heading the list. Brown was supposed to stand in the Lothians and Gaille McCann was supposed to be Number 1 here, but the Party entered into a pact with Scottish Voice, and this was the price that Brown paid. The BNP, CPA, Publicans, SCP, Scottish Unionists, Socialist Labour and UKIP are all standing as well. The Tories' Margaret Mitchell will no doubt get re-elected, and the LibDems' Hugh O'Donnell should replace Donald Gorrie, who is retiring. Depending on the Falkirk West result, Labour will get 1 or 2 seats (John Pentland will get in, Margaret Duffy is the second), and the SNP will get 3 or 4: Alex Neil will definitely be in, Michael Matheson will be an MSP one way or another, Christina McKelvie should get in as well, and John Wilson should also get elected.
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4 comments:
Yep,
absolutely right, will, pro NHS, anti PFI. It's a bummer, but I just have to get on with things. As Blackadder said, I hope something slightly unpleasant such as onions falling on their heads happens to NHS First.
re Annabelle Ewing, former Perth MP - perhaps you should also mention her being the beaten candidate in Stirling (Scottish Parliament 1999), Hamilton South (Westminster byelection 1999), Ochil & South Perthshire (Westminster 2005); not being selected for the Moray by-election (2006) following Margaret's death; and not being selected for any constituency until the death of Falkirk East SNP's first choice Douglas Henderson. It would indeed be a shock if she won.
Perhaps so, anon, though to be fair to her, you can excuse her for not winning Stirling, she came close in Hamilton South, and Richard Lochhead had already been selected as the candidate in Moray for this election. However, I take your point about her not getting that in the first place, and about Ochil & South Perthshire. That said, Cathy Peattie was Jack McConnell's favoured choice for the Deputy Presiding Officer post after he appointed Patricia Ferguson to the Executive, and she lost to Murray Tosh so her record ain't perfect either. Basically, it'll be interesting to watch. Not a good interesting, but interesting all the same.
And, Julie, maybe you need Gaille McCann to be caught in possession of a thingy-shaped turnip.
I couldn't possibly comment..
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